Aug. 8 at 2:40 PM
$ASMB Based on today’s strong Phase 1b data for ABI-5366 showing a 94% reduction in HSV-2 shedding and favorable safety, Assembly Biosciences (ASMB) is significantly undervalued at its current ~
$22 share price, which essentially prices the company near its
$260 million net cash and assigns minimal value to the drug. Applying a risk-adjusted NPV model with conservative assumptions—a 25–40% probability of success, a 12-year commercial life, and peak market share of 20–40% in a
$4 billion-plus growing HSV-2 suppressive therapy market—the fair equity value ranges between approximately
$1.7 billion and
$4.9 billion. After adding net cash, this translates to a rerated stock price between roughly
$85 and
$350 per share, assuming 14 million shares outstanding.
