Dec. 13 at 9:49 AM
$AOIFF Pareto Securities today on Africa Oil:
Africa Oil’s complicated asset ownership structure will drastically improve once its Nigerian production base is fully consolidated after the close of the Prime acquisition, which is expected in Q1’25e.
This will, for the first time, provide direct visibility on earnings and cash flows, which previously have been well hidden and not fully controlled by the company.
Combined with a doubling of production and a 3x dividend increase to “minimum USD 100m/year” (11% yield), we think this will trigger a repricing.
FCF yield of 26% and P/E 4.9x in 2025 at Brent USD 75/bbl, on our estimates, is too cheap – particularly given its “major-like” asset quality and unique exposure to the Venus discovery offshore Namibia. FID of Venus is expected next year, while 2-4 additional wells will likely be drilled to assess the upside potential on the block – both improving visibility on values.
BUY/TP SEK 28 (2x today’s share price) reiterated.