Mar. 3 at 9:24 AM
$ANVS https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2536792123
The article concludes that tests specifically measuring brain-derived (BD) pTau217 are significantly better at diagnosing Alzheimer's than standard tests.
Impact on Probability of Success (PoS)
Typical probability of Phase 3 success in Alzheimer’s disease (AD):
• Historical: ~10–15%
• With biomarker stratification (amyloid-positive): 20–30%
If pTau217:
• Reduces heterogeneity
• Reduces placebo noise
• Improves responder identification
→ it could realistically increase PoS from, for example, 20% to 30–35%.
For a small-cap biotech like ANVS, a 10 percentage point increase in PoS implies:
NPV * PoS * Peak Sales
A 50% relative increase in PoS (20% → 30%) could theoretically increase fair value by 40-60%.
