Jun. 24 at 5:27 PM
$AKBA Before attacking people for being realistic, can anyone explain how Akebia gets to
$4 without major pipeline success? I don't see it.
Auryxia revenue is declining due to generic competition, while Vafseo growth has been much slower than bulls expected. Cash will likely continue to decline as expenses remain high, and I believe the company will need to raise capital again by late 2027.
The market already knows Vafseo is growing slowly, and TDAPA expiration could create additional headwinds. That leaves the pipeline as the main catalyst, but advancing the pipeline requires cash.
Don't forget Akebia diluted shareholders in 2025 when the stock was around
$3 and raised money near
$2, even when the story was arguably stronger with NDD still in play and higher expectations for Vafseo. Today there are more shares outstanding, a declining Auryxia, and higher expenses and the same pipeline potential
Do the math. Without strong pipeline data, I struggle to see how the stock reaches
$4 ever .
