Jul. 11 at 5:32 PM
$ACHV ACHV's April 2025 company presentation estimated the full RX opportunity for cytisinicline to be
$11B. This was by figure of 15.37M adults who try to quit annually. Inadvertently they gave us an idea of where they are leaning with pricing.
$11B/15.4M is a bit north of
$715. I assume this is before rebates but can not be sure.
They also call out that there are 17M vapers and 60% of those (10.2M) try to quit annually.
So lets math this a bit...
According to NIH there were 4.5M prescriptions written in 2019 for smoking cessation (29.2% of # who try to quit). Realize many people use more than 1 cycle so this is higher than simply the percent seeking RX. Extrapolate that to vaping (29.2% of 10.2M= 2.97M scrips).
If you assume 60% penetration for smoking that's
$1.93B revenue. At 100% RX penetration for vaping that's
$2.1B for vaping, and total revenue for both of
$4.03B. This is where the BO peak revenue # starts before you discount for ORCA V not being complete.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9186091/
