Oct. 25 at 4:55 PM
$VXRT @AnilDK79 If Covid vaccine is approved and gets to market, I’d estimate market cap rising to between
$1B -
$3B, with the higher end being if it looks like Noro is headed in the right direction too. But again, that is likely 3-5 years out. Here’s why:
- It will be another 12 months until we have results from this P2B trial.
- Next is a P3, which from design to enrollment to completion will likely be another 18 months.
- Then it’s 1-3 months of statistical analysis by Vaxart.
- Then it’s ~2 months for FDA to review a BLA
- After that, the FDA review clock starts. If designated as priority, that’s ~6 months. Otherwise closer to 10 months.
- Finally, the vaccine advisory committee meets to review, which could add up to another 1-2 months.
- And then, if all goes well, we get approval and can begin manufacturing and distribution.
So when you add it up, it’s 40-48 months from now when we would likely go to market, and that’s if there are no hiccups or delays.
If no dilution happens between now and then (not likely, but we can hope), a
$1B-
$3B valuation would mean a share price of
$4.50 -
$13. I’ve never said it’s impossible to get there, just that guys like @SackLo need to get real about how long it’s going to take and that no matter who is at the helm, he’s not going to see 10x share price by end of Q1.