Jun. 16 at 7:26 PM
$VXRT OTC?
You guys know my feelings on OTC and the damage I think it would do to retail. The people have spoken on the r/s alternative, so what comes next? Looks like it’s going to come down to whether or not we receive an extension from Nasdaq…
REASONS WE MAY GET AN EXTENSION:
- Trial pause by government created an unusual circumstance outside of the company’s control and materially impacted the share price.
- Resumption of trial and up to
$460MM of funding indicates strong belief in the promise of the company, now affirmed by both sides of the political aisle.
- Excellent Noro P1 results point to a potentially bright future, especially as Vaxart seeks to quickly jump to P2 before end of year (hopefully).
- Ongoing 10k person covid trial having a chance to play out could materially impact share price.
- Potential partnership looming, with extremely bullish sentiment from management about getting a partnership done soon. (More than previous partnership mentions).
- Strong share price action showing an upward trend.
REASONS WE MAY NOT GET AN EXTENSION:
- Receiving a third extension is exceedingly rare, and we aren’t quite sure what Nasdaq would need to see in order to allow it.
- Shareholders have made their voices heard that they will not support a reverse split. This works against us for extension purposes, as Nasdaq prefers to see an r/s as a backup solution in the event that compliance isn’t reached, even just for a first or second extension.
- We are still needing to rise by ~40% to achieve compliance, so it’s not like we’re right at the doorstep of it.
BOTTOM LINE:
This one is just too close to call. I believe that if either (a) a partnership is announced before 6/30; or (b) we get over
$1 before 6/30 (even though it won’t be enough time to do 10 consecutive trading days), then we are more likely than not to get the extension. However if neither of those happens, I’m a lot less confident.
What do you guys think?