Dec. 4 at 5:12 PM
$VXRT
“Conjuring up what it takes to keep me calm”
Is Vaxart Being Ignored? NO.
Perspective: The Market Isn’t Dismissing Vaxart — It’s Waiting for the Only Milestone That Matters
Every few weeks someone asks:
“Why is Vaxart being ignored?
Why doesn’t the market care?”
The simple answer is: It’s not being ignored — it just hasn’t delivered the one thing biotech investors actually price in: Phase 2 human efficacy data.
Why Phase 2 Is the Most Important Milestone in Biotech
Biotechs can talk about platforms, patents, BARDA meetings, animal studies, and preclinical wins all day.
But none of it sets valuation.
Phase 2 is the milestone that separates speculation from validation.
1. Phase 1 = Safety (Good, but not enough)
It shows the drug is tolerated.
But thousands of compounds clear Phase 1 and never move the needle on the market.
2. Phase 2 = Human Efficacy (The Real Test)
This is where investors finally get the answers that matter:
• Does it work in real people?
• Does it reduce symptoms?
• Does it reduce viral shedding?
• Is the immune response meaningful?
• Is it better than existing options?
Phase 2 is the first true value-creating readout in any biotech program.
Until that data exists, the market simply waits.
3. Phase 2 (or peek at data) Is Where Partnerships, M&A, and Major Funding Happen
Large pharmas, and institutional investors don’t commit heavy capital until Phase 2 efficacy is real.
This is the stage where companies suddenly go from small-cap to acquisition target.
4. Vaxart Is Not Being Ignored — It’s in the Pre-Validation Gap
The platform is promising.
The science is strong.
But the market only pays for results, not potential.
And the Next Major Trigger: COVID-19 Phase 2 Data Coming in 2026
This changes the entire picture.
Vaxart is now moving its oral COVID-19 tablet into Phase 2 — with data expected in 2026.
Why this matters:
• It’s the first oral mucosal COVID vaccine reaching mid-stage efficacy
• The world still has no mucosal COVID vaccine despite the clear need for transmission-blocking immunity
• Governments and global health organizations continue funding mucosal platforms
• Success in P2 would make Vaxart the only validated oral mucosal COVID platform in the world
Norovirus + COVID both entering Phase 2 puts Vaxart on a collision course with validation across two major infectious disease markets.
This is not a company being ignored — it’s a company approaching its defining moment.
So, Is Vaxart Being Ignored?
NO.
It simply hasn’t delivered the milestone that forces Wall Street to reprice the company
