May. 30 at 3:40 PM
$DAWN trades @ 0.09X cumulative 10-year analyst consensus projected revenues. DAWN's enterprise value is ~
$150MM at
$6.20/sh as of 5/30/25 which is only 0.02X 10-year projected sales
The attachment shows 3 oncology focused peers (
$CTIC KDMN &
$DCPH) were acquired @ 0.33 - 0.39X cumulative 10-year projected revenues per the forecasts prepared by the acquiree's mgmt. We cannot confirm DAWN is an appropriate peer.
In Jan. 2025 at JP Morgan, DAWN's CEO warned investors mgmt was going to risk the value generated by Ojemda's approval on DAY-301. DAWN's CEO came from
$STRO that trades for a fraction of cash. Since historically 95 to 98% of new cancer drugs in Phase 1 fail, the odds appear 95 - 98% DAY-301 will fail. With Ojemda's patent expiring in June 2035 per a Google search which appears consistent with DAWN's 10K footnote, it appears DAWN shareholder value is most likely maximized via sale. We c/b wrong
It used to be considered common sense for small cap bios to sell after approval.
$XBI
