Jul. 26 at 9:54 PM
$SENS Potential or Not?
In a long-term (5–10 year) bull-case, Senseonics could grow substantially if Eversense gains acceptance. The CGM market is large and expected to quintuple by the 2030s. If Eversense 365 proves compelling (e.g. easily beating adhesive CGMs on convenience or cost over a year) and Senseonics successfully expands beyond the U.S. (CE Mark, then Asia), it might capture a low-double-digit share of patients. Coupled with future products (e.g. a smaller re-implantation-free sensor) and integration with pump/AID systems, the company could justify a much higher valuation. In that scenario, 5× (from ~
$0.4B to ~
$2B+ market cap) is not impossible: it would imply revenues approaching
$200–400M by ~2030 and improved margins (say 50% gross, limited opex).
However, the outlook is “uncertain”. Current realities suggest SENS is still at the very beginning of commercialization. Its sales (~
$22M in 2024) would have to grow roughly 10× to justify a
$2B+ valuation on par with peers.
