Sep. 10 at 1:05 AM
$ODD $PACS $FSLY $HIMS
Oddity tech fair valuation based on Normalization of revenue in 2027 based on PE ratio, Price sales ratio or multiples and EV/Ebitda: 42-50$ 12-18 month base target.
Rationale:
1. P/E valuation
The cleanest way to value ODD isn’t on depressed 2026 earnings. I would use normalized 2027 earnings.
Suppose the recovery produces approximately
$2.00–
$2.50 EPS in 2027.
Given ODDITY’s historical 20%+ growth profile, I think a normalized 18–22× P/E is reasonable—not the very high multiple it might deserve during hypergrowth, but higher than a stagnant beauty company.
2. P/E fair value: ~
$40–
$45 in a reasonable recovery.
For context, ODDITY already earned
$2.21 adjusted EPS in 2025. So
$2.00–
$2.25 isn’t assuming that ODD suddenly becomes dramatically more profitable than it has ever been.
2. Price-to-sales valuation
This produces an interesting result.
Before the current problems, ODD frequently carried a market capitalization around
$2–3B. For example, it ended 2025 around
$40/share and approximately
$2.3B market cap.
If 2027 revenue recovers to approximately
$850–900M:
2.0× sales →
$1.7–1.8B
2.5× →
$2.1–2.25B
3.0× →
$2.55–2.70B
Assuming roughly 50–55M shares after the company’s substantial 2026 repurchases, that implies roughly:
$34–36 at 2×
$42–45 at 2.5×
$50–54 at 3×
That is important because ODDITY historically produced 70%+ gross margins and ~20%+ adjusted EBITDA margins, which normally deserves considerably more than a distressed consumer-company sales multiple.
3. EV/EBITDA
This may be my preferred method.
Suppose normalized 2027 revenue reaches
$875M and EBITDA margin recovers to 20%.
That gives:
$875M × 20% = ~
$175M EBITDA
Apply:
10× EBITDA =
$1.75B EV
12× =
$2.10B EV
14× =
$2.45B EV
The balance sheet complicates the exact equity bridge because ODDITY raised exchangeable-note capital after 2025, so I wouldn’t simply treat all reported cash as excess cash. But even without giving ODDITY full credit for its liquidity, 12–14× normalized EBITDA supports a valuation substantially above the distressed valuation implied by the current stock price.
Why I think ~
$42 is reasonable
This isn’t dependent on ODDITY returning to 50% growth.
In 2023 it generated
$509M revenue /
$107M EBITDA. In 2024 that became
$647M /
$150M. And in 2025 it reached
$810M /
$163M.
Then the advertising/CAC problem hit IL MAKIAGE. Q1 2026 revenue dropped 26% and adjusted EBITDA went to -
$7M, despite management saying the underlying issue was a dislocation in customer acquisition rather than disappearance of demand. Management also bought back approximately 6.1M shares for
$82.3M during Q1, reducing Class A shares outstanding by about 10.6%.
So I see the investment thesis as:
$16–17 today → ~
$30–35 partial recovery → ~
$40–45 normalized recovery →
$50–60+ if ODD returns to its historical growth/margin profile.
12–18 month base target would therefore be around
$42, rather than the
$50+ bull case. The biggest thing I’d watch now is CAC/CPA normalization at IL MAKIAGE. If the Q3 improvement management just guided to actually materializes and EBITDA begins recovering simultaneously, I’d be much more comfortable moving fair value toward
$45–50.
