Jun. 23 at 1:49 PM
$NXTC
As of June 2025, NextCure is trading at
$0.49 per share with approximately 28 million shares outstanding. Their Q1 10-Q shows a cash and marketable securities position of roughly
$56 million and a quarterly burn rate of around
$13 million, giving them an estimated runway into mid-2026. The company has not generated product revenue and continues to operate at a net loss, which was
$11 million for Q1 2025.
The most material development is the June 13 licensing agreement with Hainan Simcere Zaiming. NextCure acquired rights to SIM0505, a clinical-stage ADC, and gained non-exclusive access to Zaiming’s ADC platform. This was coupled with a
$17 million licensing commitment and a
$2 million equity investment at
$0.492 per share. That private placement price is critically important—it acts as both a short-term valuation anchor and a strong signal of insider confidence, especially given the absence of a discount.
Additionally, shareholders approved a reverse stock split on June 20, giving the board discretion to reduce the float and boost the share price to maintain Nasdaq compliance. While reverse splits are typically seen as a red flag, they can also attract institutional interest if paired with meaningful catalysts. The key is that the split itself doesn’t change valuation—it only affects optics and compliance.
From a dilution standpoint, the equity financing is modest. About 4 million shares were added from the Zaiming deal, bringing the total to around 32 million shares. There are roughly 10 million options outstanding with a weighted average strike of
$6.19, most of which are deeply out of the money and thus not an immediate dilution threat. Importantly, this gives the company breathing room without requiring urgent capital raises.
Fundamentally, the stock appears undervalued. The cash position alone is worth about
$1.75 per share on a pre-split, fully diluted basis—more than triple the current market price. When factoring in pipeline optionality, particularly SIM0505 and LNCB74 (a co-developed B7-H4 ADC), and the upcoming Phase 2 catalyst, the equity should be re-rated upward. The market seems to be pricing NXTC as if bankruptcy or immediate dilution is imminent, which is inconsistent with current filings.
The
$0.49 share price is artificially low relative to both net asset value and strategic optionality. A fair trading range, assuming no clinical blowups and no unexpected dilution, is likely between
$0.70 and
$0.90 in the near term. If positive clinical developments or partnerships emerge, a breakout toward
$1.20 or higher is rational. If a 1-for-10 reverse split occurs, these figures simply scale up, e.g.,
$0.80 becomes
$8.00.
To be clear: there is risk. This is still a pre-revenue biotech company in a volatile sector with a history of restructuring. But based purely on fundamentals, institutional validation, and strategic positioning, the current market price undervalues NextCure’s cash and pipeline. The licensing deal, equity investment, and reverse split authority signal that management is aligning for a late-2025 inflection point. The market has not fully priced that in.
