Oct. 6 at 3:26 PM
$NRXP Rough Valuation
-- Estimate future peak revenue for a successful drug
Suppose one lead candidate (say NRX-100) at peak achieves US
$200 million/year in net sales in the U.S. / global markets (this is illustrative; actual could be higher or lower).
-- Apply a premium multiple, assume the market assigns a 10× EV/Revenue multiple to reflect high growth/unmet-need potential.
EV = 200 M × 10 = US
$2,000 million
-- Subtract net debt / adjust for dilution
assume net debt or liabilities subtract US
$50M equivalent.
so Adjusted enterprise : equity value ≈
$2,000M –
$50M =
$1,950M
Divide by diluted shares. If current market cap is, say,
$100M, and share count doubles, then the implied multiple is 19×. But dilution matter heavily.
-- Translate to per-share price
If in this illustrative model the number of diluted shares ends up being, say, 300 million, then:
Implied price = 1,950M/300M shares = US
$6.50 per share
