Jun. 7 at 6:09 PM
$LXRX Organic or BO - Part 1
Facts first:
- Sotagliflozin patents expire by 2028, 5 yr extension granted to 2033
- Inpefa/HF has 7 yr runway
- Approval in 2027, Inpefa/HCM has 6 yr runway
- Zynquista/T1D has "sticky market" due to REMS for DKA - prevent off-label generics & add 5 yr to 2038.
Organic growth of sales is very slow:
- Viatris Inpefa sales: M$$ to tens of M$$ to 2029, and 00s of M$$ to 2033 (royalties)
- Zynquista/T1D: 12 yr runway, 1st in class, peak sales to B$$
- Inpefa/HCM: 6 yr runway against competition, peak sales to
$500M at best
- Pilavapadin/DPNP: approval in 2028, 12+ yr runway, peak sales
$2B to
$3B, if partnered, only a fraction from royalties
- LX9851/obesity: P1 trial now, P2 in 2027, P3 in 2028, approval in 2029-30, multi-B$$ peak sales, only royalties in the 00s of M$$
SP estimate:
2026:
$2.0 to
$4.0 (T1D, HF)
2027:
$4.0 to
$8.0 (T1D, HF, HCM)
2028:
$8.0 to
$12 (T1D, HF, HCM, DPNP)
2029:
$12 to
$20 (same)
2030: >
$20 (T1D, HF, HCM, DPNP, obesity)
