dhandoKlarman28
Sep 18, 5:58 PM
$LUCK fundamentals are hitting a cash flow inflection point.
• Cash Flow Shift: Peak CapEx (
$194M in FY24) drops to ~
$90M in FY27, unlocking +
$50M in Free Cash Flow (S&P projects positive FOCF in FY27).
• Floating Supply: Sponsor (Atairos) controls ~72M shares, restricting the active public float to just ~11.6M shares.
• Buyback Powder: Management holds a
$59M buyback authorization—enough to retire ~10.7M shares (~92% of the public float) at current prices while 1.97M shares sit short.
Massive CapEx cuts easily fund the buyback without adding debt. The free cash flow inflection is colliding directly with a structurally starved float.
1 replies