Apr. 19 at 12:33 AM
$LGIH — LGI Homes. Entry-level homebuilder. Revenue down 23% in 2025, EPS down 62%, cancellation rate 43% — all because of mortgage rates. Now: rates at 4-year lows. Backlog +133% YoY to
$501M. 916 closings in Q1. Active communities expanding to 150–160. Stock sitting on decade-long support at
$43 with weekly RSI at 10-year lows. Earnings April 28 with
$0.01 EPS estimate — the lowest bar possible.
🐂 Decade support holds → rate environment improving → backlog converts →
$53 →
$61 →
$68+
🐻
$43.56 breaks → construction cost tariffs + rates reverse →
$35
⚠️ This is a macro trade, not a company trade. LGI didn't fail — the mortgage market failed their customers. Now rates are near 4-year lows and the backlog just doubled. April 28 on a
$0.01 EPS estimate.
#LGIH #LGIHomes #Housing #hovdid
