Jun. 14 at 8:17 AM
$GSVRF in Q1 they produced only 616k AgEq. That is exactly HALF of expected production for the year. So there is no way they will do 5Mtpa AgEq in 2026. They would have to do 1.46M AgEq for each of the next three quarters. Unfortunately I do not think they will. They have optimisations to capture but I will give them only 850k AgEq per quarter at best - so only 3.2M AgEq for 2026 in total. Way under expectation. And nowhere near the numbers they threw in their presentation for 2025, when they did not own Bolanitos but they included it anyway, which listed 1.85Moz Ag and 25.6k Au. It's just not going to happen. Due to drilling and exploration, AISC will not go down to 20s. With that said and AISC at
$50, shares at 600M and P/E=10, we can get these valuations with price of silver being:
$100 ->
$2.6 -> 7.2x
$120 ->
$3.7 -> 10.2x
$150 ->
$5.3 -> 14.7x
$180 ->
$6.9 -> 19.1x
$200 ->
$8 -> 22.2x