Mar. 13 at 1:14 PM
$CLNN Per AI but I actually think the NDA filing/acceptance odds are greater than 70% at this point (but this just shows what we already know that the stock is massively mis-priced at this point!):
The market is dramatically mispricing the probability of an NDA filing and acceptance.
Current market cap: ~
$60M
Current price: ~
$6
Based on the regulatory discussions to date and the biomarker data already reported, the probability that Clene proceeds with an NDA submission for AA appears far higher than what the market is pricing in.
A reasonable framework:
• ~70% chance FDA allows NDA filing
• If NDA is accepted, comparable ALS-stage companies typically trade in the
$250M–
$400M market cap range even before approval
That implies:
Current market cap: ~
$60M
Likely market cap upon NDA acceptance: ~
$300M (midpoint)
That’s roughly a 5x re-rating simply on NDA acceptance, before even pricing in accelerated approval.
Why the disconnect?
(con't)
