Aug. 20 at 4:01 PM
$CLNN At
$4.21 and ~
$54M market cap, work backwards to what the market is implying.
Approval scenario: sell-side targets sit around
$31–32 (Benchmark at
$31, consensus ~
$32.20). Those aren't crazy — an approved ALS drug at Relyvrio-like pricing supports a
$500M–1.5B enterprise value, and even on a diluted count of ~20M shares that lands in the
$25–75 range.
CRL scenario: probably
$1.00–1.50, maybe lower.
Run it. At a 25% approval probability: 0.25 ×
$35 + 0.75 ×
$1 ≈
$9.50. At 15%: 0.15 ×
$35 + 0.85 ×
$1 ≈
$6.10. Both above
$4.21.
The market at
$4.21 is implying roughly 10–13% approval odds. But the real odds is around 50%. Even if you would put it somewhere around 20–30%, the stock is cheap at these levels and the expected value is positive. Boxer, Vivo, Coastlands got shares at
$6.50 in Jan; a single buyer took 1M shares at
$7 in April/May. Also, they are not going to go a full-blown offering, maybe around
$10M -
$20 m to cover until 1H 2027. I wouldn't mind such scenario, would you?
