Feb. 18 at 8:15 PM
$CGTX alright I’m almost done with my 2nd phase of accumulation, so I’m gonna spill some DD.
Why no P3 AD study yet, and why the pitch to do a P2b DLB study? These are key questions.
First, I think the AD program is on hold until the GRANT-funded START study reads out next summer. There’s little incentive to do a P3 AD study because that study might provide enough to go straight to AA.
The P2b is the real potential stroke of genius. Why not a P3 trial? IMO they are going to try to slingshot ahead of CRVO in the DLB space by doing a (shorter & cheaper) P2b study that may allow for AA designation. So, step 1: get FDA alignment. Step 2: get Tier 1 funding to pay for that (like NERV did). Yes, that’s dilution but would immediately legitimize the drug and should bump the stock a lot. NERV jumped about 3x in a day.
This could set CGTX up to have a first to market pill for DLB and mild AD by late 2027-ish. I’m gonna stop there, but there’s a path here to
$5-10B MC within 24 months.
