Oct. 9 at 12:52 PM
$ANRGF
Roth - Anaergia: Buy & Raise PT to C
$5.00
ANRG.TO: Positive Mgmt Meetings; Nearing
+EBITDA; Reit Buy & Raise PT to C
$5.00
We hosted investor meetings with management from Anaergia where the primary takeaway was that momentum should continue, as backlog and revenue strength likely continue to build. The team added C
$70M in new backlogged orders since the end of 2025, implying healthy visibility. We believe the signed pipeline now includes over 30 projects and a billion dollar opportunity. Headwinds from past BOO projects have completely abated, and we expect the four remaining projects on the balance sheet to make a positive EBITDA contribution in 2026. We reiterate our Buy rating and raise our PT to C
$5.00.
• We hosted a series of investor meetings with management from Anaergia, where the takeaways were broadly positive. The team's body language was consistent with solid execution continuing, and they communicated a palpable excitement about the global opportunity. The pivot to equipment sales and service over the past year, focusing on complete projects (vs. the prior focus on buildown-operate projects), seems to have delivered customer traction and increased visibility on the global opportunity set. The 250+ patent technology base supports credibility for the company's technology solutions.
• We expect new project announcements from blue chip customers. We believe Anaergia continues to build on its resume of over 230 RNG projects and 1,750 technology installations, as the new team is focused on targeting larger customers operating a global footprint. New efforts targeting oil & gas and food processing could yield near-term results, supplementing strength in wastewater and municipal organics processing. The food waste project for PEPSICO was a highlight.
• Backlog exiting 3Q25 should reflect the benefit of C
$70M in new committed orders signed since the end of 2Q25, while signed pipeline expands rapidly.
• Accretive acquisitions could present an opportunity for diversified growth.
• We see solid potential for a EBITDA profitable fourth quarter.
• We believe Anaergia's revenue capacity is around C
$300MM+ on one production shift, and management could easily add a second shift or make greater use of outsourcing to address demand.