Jul. 29 at 8:51 PM
$ALM Yes, this is what the market hasn’t realized yet, there just isn’t enough supply. In the end it doesn’t matter if China lifts export restrictions or DFARS (Jan 1st) is extended. Non of that will create supply. The APT spot price will remain high until big greenfield projects like KAZ come online and that won’t be in this decade. My model assumes a
$2600 spot price and estimates an annualized run rate eps of
$3 by Q4 2027. For a bull-bear range at 10x-25x P/E that’s a possible share range of
$30-
$75. I also see the
$800M notes as highly bullish. Currently the market is bearish on this but they didn’t issue these for nothing. We know they will pay off legacy debt and build a nano-oxide plant but there is plenty of cash left for acquisitions and thus room to improve on the upside.
