May. 12 at 3:50 PM
$MESA
My quick calculation of what to expect Mesa shareholders should get out of this deal.
Republic stated
$65 mil of net income in 2024.
Add some growth and hopefully some MESA net income to get to
$80 million net income this year.
Keeping the current number of shares MESA has at 40 million, gives
$2 EPS.
And a generous P/E of 10, little bit less than Skywest P/E of 12. Gives a stock price of
$20 for the new company.
6% of 20 is
$1.2 for MESA shareholders
12% of 20 gives
$2.4.
So seems the market has the 6% baked in right now, and if we hear its 12% we should get a close to double in price.
Too bad nobody in public knows what gets us 12% instead of 6%.
In my opinion the 6-12% valuation is way too low, and should have been in the 20% range. MESA is contributing 20% of planes and revenue.
Anything wrong with my calculations? Only assumption i made is that the current number of MESA shares outstanding will be the same when it becomes RJET.
