Nov. 13 at 3:23 PM
$MESA
No call but don’t expect one now given the Q is due today/early tomorrow.
Morning thoughts:
1. UAL converted their debt at @2.50 PS/
$100M cap when/around they got Republic and Mesa talking. That is about a post-merger
$1.7B cap.
2. One of the recent updates listed the NOC tiers at
$1.40,
$2.00 and
$2.50 – coincidence?
3. The debt/escrow share math is like walking in the dark. However, if the BS is used and we get some/all of the
$40M+ in cash and the
$60M of unsold assets (6/30) then we should be good on the escrow – and that is the way it should be.
4. I believe they will sell escrow shares within the 60 days at a price-point at least 50% higher than today’s price which will reduce the # of shares to retire UAL’s debt, to the extent any debt is left.
5. I don’t see how we don’t get at least 3% of the 6% and should be close to the full 6%.
6. We are trading at @3X EBITDA/2026 and the industry members with healthy BSs are trading 5-10X.
{Sorry for the formatting}
