Jun. 25 at 5:56 PM
$LLKKF ChatGPT - 2 year outlook for lithium price?
"The outlook over the next two years (mid-2026 through mid-2028) is much better than it looked 12–18 months ago, but I do not think we are heading back to the 2022 supercycle. My base case is a cyclical recovery within a structurally healthier market, rather than another speculative bubble.
My probability-weighted outlook
Scenario Probability Lithium carbonate (China equivalent)
Moderate recovery (base case) 60% US
$15,000–22,000/t
Strong bull market 20% US
$25,000–35,000/t
Renewed oversupply 20% US
$10,000–15,000/t
The base case is that prices remain above the 2025 lows but below the 2022 extremes."