Economist4401
Posted - 1 day ago
$SPY $DJIA $NASDAQ $IEF $SHY Yields continues north.
StonkTech
Posted - 1 day ago
Vanguard warns on April 18th that the Treasury market is close to levels that might cause a significant selloff, potentially driving 10-year bond yields to 5%. Ales Koutny, head of international rates at Vanguard, indicates that a yield move past 4.75% could lead to a wave of selling reminiscent of 2007. Why could there be a significant selloff in the Treasury market? How have the expectations of rate cut changed the current state of the Treasury market? Check more in-depth analysis on Stonk Tech! $TLT $IEF $SHY #StonkTech #vanguard #UStreasury
Economist4401
Posted - 1 day ago
$SPY $DJIA $NASDAQ $IEF $SHY Agree. Which might lead to 450...
Treasury Yields Head To 'Danger Zone': Analyst Forecasts Potential Spike To 5%, Disorderly Sell-Off For Markets
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-yields-head-danger-zone-182634215.html
JLInvest
Posted - 1 day ago
$SPY $QQQ $USO $SHY $DBA tagged too many tickers ha.
Ro_Patel
Posted - 1 week ago
Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson - Economic Uncertainty and the Evolution of Monetary Policymaking https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/jefferson20240416a.htm $SPY $UVXY $TLT $SHY $UUP
JLInvest
Posted - 1 week ago
$SPY $QQQ the $FED adjusts policy when the markets move. Watch the 2 year $SHY if it breaks out to new highs. The FED will have to pivot again from transitory 2.0 in 2024. The FED follows the bond market over the longer term. All jawboning does is temporarily adjust short-term prices.
Economist4401
Posted - 1 week ago
$SPY $DJIA $NASDAQ $IEF $SHY Stock market going RED, Most likely...
Economist4401
Posted - 1 week ago
$SPY $DJIA $NASDAQ $IEF $SHY Another bad inflation data cuase Treasuries Sell-off. Yields skyrocketing.
Economist4401
Posted - 1 week ago
$SPY $$SPX $DJIA $IEF $SHY Treasury Yields shooting up hard due to bad inflation data...
Economist4401
Posted - 1 week ago
$SPY $EURUSD $IEF $SHY $DXY Fed can start cutting interest rates by end of 2024, IMF managing director says
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/11/fed-can-start-cutting-interest-rates-by-end-of-2024-imf-managing-director-says.html
Economist4401
Posted - 1 week ago
$IEF $SHY $GLD $QQQ Fed likely to cut rates before ECB blinks, former BOE member says
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/11/the-fed-will-cut-rates-before-the-ecb-former-boe-deanne-julius-said.html
Interesting...
believeyoume
Posted - 1 week ago
$shy would they reward the bulls? Much more expensive than dangling meat in front of them and then maybe you get to burn some bears interest in the meantime but many of them are still holding 519 puts they havent made any extra money on that since Monday
Economist4401
Posted - 2 weeks ago
$SPY $DJIA $NASDAQ $IEF $SHY probably due another strength Job market data
Economist4401
Posted - 2 weeks ago
$SPY $DJIA $NASDAQ $IEF $SHY Yields continues Up again....
Economist4401
Posted - 2 weeks ago
$SPY $DJIA $NASDAQ $QQQ $shy no.faith
Ro_Patel
Posted - 2 weeks ago
According to minutes from the March 19-20 meeting, Fed officials said they did not want to repeat the 2017-2019 balance-sheet runoff, which ended after turmoil in money markets. Fed officials generally favored reducing the monthly pace of shrinking its balance sheet by half. That would mean trimming the runoff of maturing Treasurys to $30B per month from the current $60B-per-month pace. The $35B cap on runoff of MBS would be kept. That aligns with the Fed’s intention to hold primarily Treasury securities in the long run. Fed has trimmed its balance sheet by $1.5B vs Fed expanded balance sheet by $5T during the pandemic. Fed noted that inflation would continue to move lower, but said that the path “was generally expected to be somewhat uneven.” $SPY $UUP $TLT $TBIL $SHY
Ro_Patel
Posted - 2 weeks ago
Fed Fund Futures Probabilities: June meeting: No cut goes to 81% from 42.6% yesterday July meeting: No cut goes to 55.9% from 25% yesterday Sept meeting: No cut goes to 30.2% from 8.5% yesterday Nov meeting: No cut goes to 22.6% from 5.5% yesterday Dec meeting: No cut goes to 11.2% from 2.1% yesterday $SHY $TBIL $TLT $UUP $SPY
Economist4401
Posted - 2 weeks ago
$SPY $DJIA $NASDAQ $IEF $SHY Yields heading to 5%....
Ro_Patel
Posted - 2 weeks ago
US CPI: +3.5% y/y vs est of +3.4%)
US Core CPI: +3.8% y/y vs est of +3.7%)
US CPI +0.4% m/m vs est of +0.3%
US CPI Core +0.4% m/m vs est of +0.3%
The 6-month annualized core CPI was 3.9%, the highest since July 2023 $SHY $TLT $UUP $SPY $SPX
Ro_Patel
Posted - 2 weeks ago
Skynet $SPY seems to like excess money market balances - expects money will come back in once rates come down - BTW assumes rates will come down any time soon - wait until after tax season for truer balances $SPX $VIX $SHY
Ro_Patel
Posted - 2 weeks ago
BoA: Assets in money-market funds rose to a record $6.111T last week Retail money-market fund levels also hit a record high of $2.429T & institutional money-fund levels are near their mid-March record high of $3.718T S&P 500 is up +8.7% vs Monet Market Funds offering yield of 5ish% Park it & go to bed $SHY $TBIL $SPY $SPX $ES_F
Ro_Patel
Posted - 2 weeks ago
Twitterati are worried that US money supply went negative, why... 5 instances where M2 money supply declined by at least -2% y/y, including last year. Previous 4 instances — 1878, 1893, 1921, & 1931-1933 — were associated with periods of depression & high unemployment for the US economy. Dig deeper... The Fed Reserve didn't exist in 1878 or 1893. Monetary & Fiscal tools are more robust than in the 1920s & 30s. In 2023, M2 may simply be a reversion to the mean after M2 expanded by a historic +26% y/y due to the COVID-19 pandemic - further M2 velocity continues to be running very high which mitigates any declines in M2. $TBIL $SHY $TLT $UUP - $SPY
Economist4401
Posted - 3 weeks ago
$SPY $IEF $SHY $QQQ $NASDAQ The U.S 10 years yield shooting up to 4.1% ,highest since September 2023.
Aigner_Andreas
Posted - 3 weeks ago
TF SELL $SHY at 81.38 : 81.46 36% Shp 1.35 S 20.49 N 1.04 RSI 47.84% SRSI 43.7% ADXR 11.26 #stocks #trading #finance #market
Ro_Patel
Posted - 3 weeks ago
SF Fed Daly: “Inflation is coming down, but it’s slow. Bumpy and slow,” There’s still a “path” to cut interest rates this year, “but we’re just not there yet.” "Three rate cuts is a projection and a projection is not a promise,” Timing & size of the rate cuts will depend on how fast inflation slows and whether the economy softens. Clevland Fed Mester: “I still think three (rate cuts) is reasonable, but it’s close call,” “I do not expect I will have enough information by the time of the FOMC’s next meeting (May) to make that determination,” “It’s a good reminder of what we already knew: the disinflation process won’t be a smooth path back to 2%,” Fed Fund Futures pricing in 3 rate cuts starting in June $TBIL $SHY $TLT $UUP $SPY
JLInvest
Posted - 3 weeks ago
$SPY $QQQ $SHY $TNX As up is down and down is up. A bear steepening IMO would be bearish for stonks and the economy as non revolving credit creation and multiple expansion would decline. Team transitory 2.0 at the FED would create this event (FED promising rate cuts). Currently, we sit -38bps inverted. If this were to play out, I'd expect the 10-year to make another run towards 5% and the 2-year to remain priced at 3 cuts. With the finacialization of the US economy, equity markets lead the real economy. This is the post 2008 world as we know it. We no longer price economic growth in equity markets but rather anticipation of more liquidity. I think fundamentals and valuations support this opinion. $STUDY
Economist4401
Posted - 3 weeks ago
$SPY $DJIA $NASDAQ $IEF $SHY Yields. The perfect Storm?
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx
JLInvest
Posted - 3 weeks ago
$TLT $TNX same game moving into the month and quarter end as mechanical money flows push yields lower. Then, it's back to the fundamental backdrop of higher structural inflation and elevated nominal sales prints driven by government stimulus. $SHY $SPX . As long as we spend to support nominal growth and it doesn't cause stagflation (stagflation has remained contained in manufacturing), then rates on the long end aren't easing. If FED cuts without labor market weakness, then bond bulls are in trouble.
