QuantLake Posted - 5 days ago

Bond Market Alert: Duration Risk Flashing Red Signals! 📈 Let's dive into the fixed income landscape: 🌍 International Bonds $BNDX leading with bullish momentum Strong positive sentiment and improving trends 🏢 Corporate Bonds Investment grade $LQD neutral but weakening Signaling potential caution ahead 🌎 Emerging Markets $EMB showing resilience Positive sentiment with improving momentum ⚠️ Long Duration Treasury $VGLT and $TLT both bearish Negative sentiment continues to weaken Duration risk remains elevated A clear pattern emerges: shorter duration and international exposure outperforming, while long-term Treasury bonds face persistent headwinds. Are you adjusting your fixed income allocation? 🤔 Happy long-term investing from the Quantlake team!

StockGPTchat Posted - 6 days ago

On November 14, 2024, after analyzing 22 years of $LQD's Drawdown Data and its Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) for value, we calculated the probability of future price movements based on historical price action. *********** Key Data for November 14, 2024: Price: $108.21 (DOWN -0.03%) RSI14: 48.88 Drawdown from ATH: -22.36% All Time % Change (adjusted for all stock splits): 5.93 *********** $LQD Next Day Probability: We identified 3359 instances over the past 22 years, on a 1-day time period, where similar price action, drawdown and Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) levels occurred, which we can use to calculate the probability of where this stock will be the next-day. • 1563 out of 3359 times (46.53%), $LQD closed LOWER the next day, with an average loss of -0.31%. • 1796 out of 3359 times (53.47%), $LQD closed HIGHER the next day, with an average gain of 0.29%. *********** $LQD 7-Day (5 Trading Day) Probability: We identified 3358 instances over the past 22 years, on a 7-day time period, where similar price action, drawdown and Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) levels occurred, which we can use to calculate the probability of where the stock will be 7-Days (5 Trading Days) later. • 1530 out of 3358 times (45.56%), $LQD closed LOWER a week later (5 trading days), with an average loss of -0.69%. • 1828 out of 3358 times (54.44%), $LQD closed HIGHER a week later (5 trading days), with an average gain of 0.63%. *********** $LQD 30-Day (20 Trading Day) Probability: We identified 3358 instances over the past 22 years, on a 30-day time period, where similar price action, drawdown and Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) levels occurred, which we can use to calculate the probability of where the stock will be 30-Days (20 Trading Days) later. • 1530 out of 3358 times (45.56%), $LQD closed LOWER a month later (20 trading days), with an average loss of -1.49%. • 1828 out of 3358 times (54.44%), $LQD closed HIGHER a month later (20 trading days), with an average gain of 1.40%. *********** $LQD 1-Year (252 Trading Day) Probability: We identified 3191 instances over the past 22 years, on a 1-year time period, where similar price action, drawdown and Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) levels occurred, which we can use to calculate the probability of where the stock will be 1-Year (252 Trading Days) later. • 1516 out of 3191 times (47.51%), $LQD closed LOWER a year later (252 trading days), with an average loss of -5.14%. • 1675 out of 3191 times (52.49%), $LQD closed HIGHER a year later (252 trading days), with an average gain of 4.92%. *********** If you’re looking for an even more detailed breakdown report for this stock, analyzed over its entire history of 5617 days, check us out: https://www.stockgptchat.com/stock-analysis/lqd-stock-forecast-historical-data-driven-price-movement-probabilities-and-analysis/

ATMcharts Posted - 10/29/24

Fresh Writeup - Chart Of The Day: Bonds $AGG $JNK $LQD $TLT https://rotationreport.substack.com/p/chart-of-the-day-a19

swingingtech Posted - 10/29/24

$LQD https://wallstreetwaves.com/significant-200-day-moving-average-crossover-in-lqd/

swingingtech Posted - 10/25/24

$LQD https://wallstreetwaves.com/significant-withdrawal-trends-seen-in-ishares-iboxx-investment-grade-corporate-bond-etf/

Shortbreaker9000 Posted - 1 month ago

$LQD rates dropping this is a death trap

QuantLake Posted - 1 month ago

📊 Corporate and Emerging Markets Bonds are gaining ground! Both investment-grade corporate bonds $LQD and emerging markets bonds $EMB are showing bullish momentum with positive and improving sentiment. These may be solid choices for those seeking growth in bonds. 🔗 Treasuries under pressure. Long-term government bonds $VGLT, $TLT are neutral in momentum but with weakening sentiment, indicating potential challenges ahead for those seeking safety in Treasuries. 💼 $TIPS bonds are on the rise, with bullish momentum and improving sentiment. Inflation protection might be worth considering in the current environment!

QuantInsider Posted - 1 month ago

Looks like $LQD is stirring things up with a solid 20K options volume today. Seeing some institutional interest in bonds definitely has me thinking—could this be a sign of changing tides, or just temporary chatter? I’m curious to know what everyone else thinks about this trend and where it might lead us.

seeitmarket Posted - 09/25/24

NEW Article: "Dividends Are Cool Again With Investors" - https://www.seeitmarket.com/dividends-are-cool-again-with-investors/ by Connected Wealth $TNX $SPY $TLT $LQD

Forklift5909 Posted - 2 months ago

Following up on my last statement - here's what I mean by financial conditions (orange). That Vix spike last month correlated to a jump in $IEF/$LQD. More specifically what happened if $IEF (government bonds) rallied while $LQD (corporates) didn't. So the spread widened. Volatility soared and stocks dumped. Now picture this, but on a much grander scale and that's what happens when bond spreads blow out as rates get cut. The only way you get an 'orderly' cutting cycle for stocks is if corporate bond yields follow government bond yields lower. And that's not going to happen if the reason for cuts is because something is awry in the economy, which is typically the case for cuts. So what happens is government yields fall (safe, no default risk) while corporate bonds yields remain high because of the inherent risk. Or they could go higher if people sell corporate bonds for some reason. In either situation the yield spread widens. Volatility up, stocks down.

macroQmicro Posted - 2 months ago

Asset Classes ranked by price strength and momentum re Sep. 17 close: $TIP $LQD $PFF $MBB

macroQmicro Posted - 2 months ago

Asset Classes ranked by price strength and momentum re Sep. 16 close: $TIP $PFF $LQD $BKLN

SexyStockSlayer Posted - 2 months ago

$LQD started a position, this one look good • Recent private placement like $APLD that ran big after • High SI 23% and 23% left of the float to retail • Insiders just bought $3.4 Million worth of shares 32% owned • Institutes buying, 45% owned -Caligan Partners LP increased stake to 16.5% of their entire port • Just won a court cases that will give them back majority of their $137Million loss • Squeezefinder has a juice target $19.10 • The company has 22.2 months of cash left based on quarterly cash burn of -$23.76M and estimated current cash of $175.7M • Recent Strong Buy Ratings $24 PT

judgeyoung2 Posted - 2 months ago

@ribbey @jenbunn @cubie @simon58 @Alvi722 @jargv @Ollip @EBE_Day @TraderRapp @tonyctl i added a tiny 1dte strangle on boring $LQD, $112.5c/$111p, 5 contracts each. thinking employment report tomorrow might move it.

macroQmicro Posted - 3 months ago

Asset Classes ranked by price strength and momentum re August 16 close: $ILF $LQD $EMB $GLD

macroQmicro Posted - 3 months ago

Asset Classes ranked by price strength and momentum re August 14 close: $ILF $LQD $UNG $EMB

Cashcow777 Posted - 3 months ago

#CPI data on the #Fed, Carry trade, #VIX and recession odds $SPY $QQQ $IWM $LQD https://youtu.be/_AT3OaXzXoM?si=JLxg9uRUY7HeRje9

macroQmicro Posted - 3 months ago

Asset Classes ranked by price strength and momentum re August 13 close: $ILF $SHY $LQD $IEF

Ro_Patel Posted - 3 months ago

Corp bond spreads continue to look constructive - IMHO no need to buy low quality $JNK $HYG $LQD $SHY $TLT

Forklift5909 Posted - 3 months ago

$VIX $IEF $LQD $SPY $QQQ Big move in credit spreads. Warned about this last Thursday.👇

trendtrader6 Posted - 3 months ago

$IEF vs $LQD monthly chart. history of 5ma crossing above 20ma. Feb 22- 2022' carnage, Feb 20'- covid carnage, Oct 18- pre volmageddon, Dec 15, eurodollar crisis, July 07- eventually 08 GFC. Markets can keep climbing after the cross but not for too long it seems unless the blood is drawn elsewhere. In many cases the issues were evident soon after. Looks like the 5ma could cross the 20 around October/November this year. $SPY

Forklift5909 Posted - 3 months ago

$SPY $QQQ $IEF $LQD $VIX Little update on credit spreads today, as we might be seeing something interesting happening here. Since last October, government/corporate bond spreads have been basically flat after a huge tightening. No volatility as a result, basically just straight up in stocks. Now I'm seeing some life in the $IEF/$LQD spread. Here's a daily chart. Notice the increase in both volatility and spreads recently. I posted a couple weeks ago the volatility seasonality chart: https://stocktwits.com/Forklift5909/message/579965693 The market went through a pretty extended pullback last year from July through October. So is it time to panic? (continued)

Venge Posted - 3 months ago

$IEF/$LQD 👀😖

TalkMarkets Posted - 5 months ago

Five #ETFs That Gained Investors Love Last Week $QQQ $EFG $IVV $LQD $IEFA https://talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/five-etfs-that-gained-investors-love-last-week?post=450775

JxP2000 Posted - 5 months ago

$LQD this thing going to make a move today or was that it?

Shortbreaker9000 Posted - 5 months ago

$LQD $TLT deflation is really bad, you can’t go back.

Shortbreaker9000 Posted - 5 months ago

$LQD FED needs a scorched earth policy, death rattle rings in the forest but everyone is at the taylor swift concert routing for the antihero

Forklift5909 Posted - 5 months ago

@OsitoPolar The chart I tend to reference is $IEF/$LQD for spreads. So you could be long $IEF (or $TLT, both are government bonds with $TLT being higher duration) and short $LQD. But I'd rather just be long government bonds. What happens to corporate yields after the Fed cuts is somewhat of a coin toss. That's why I mentioned the differences between dotcom and GFC/covid. Look on this chart. This is the Moody's (investment grade) corporate bond yield chart. It goes back further than $LQD. See how yields went sideways or moved down as the Fed cut in 2000? You wouldn't want to short $LQD back then if it existed. You would have lost money. However in the GFC and covid, corporate yields spiked, which created a larger spread, since government bond yields always drop during cuts. So I'd rather just be long government bonds. The bigger the spread, the bigger the stock market decline. This is why tight spreads are a warning sign.

Forklift5909 Posted - 5 months ago

@OsitoPolar Yup, nothing has changed. Credit spreads are as tight now as they were at the 2021 market top. Rates are still high because the Fed isn't worried, and corporate yields are only 1% higher than treasuries because corporate debt is seen as virtually risk free. That's the market right now. Everyone is complacent. History has shown this pollyannish positioning is bad for long-term returns. I think a "surprise" weaker labor market will trigger "surprise" rate cuts. That would widen the spread leading to a dotcom outcome, assuming corporate yields remain flat or fall with rates. Not a big market hit. However if worries about credit risk in corporate bonds increase at the same time the Fed cuts, that's GFC or covid widening/divergence with $LQD much lower and $TLT higher - big bang and perhaps market crash. No one knows when attitudes will change. But I think it's sooner than many expect because spreads this tight are historically short-lived.👇

Shortbreaker9000 Posted - 05/31/24

$LQD that 20 dollar drop in the chart shows this is far from liquid