Ro_Patel
Posted - 1 month ago
Fed's Goolsbee (2025 voter) says dockworkers strike was predicted, retailers have been stockpiling & have about 2 weeks of stuff, after that will forecast more of an effect. Dockworkers strike could have supply chain issue effects, that could mean some increases in prices. Dockworkers' strike could start as inconvenience & get worse as it goes on. Note: The strike does not extend to cruise ships or military cargo. Right now ILA members’ base hourly wage is $39, which they wish to gradually increase to $69 over the next six years, constituting an eventual +77% raise. (The latest offer from the Maritime Alliance was a +50% raise over that same time span) The argument from the dockworkers is that shipping companies have made huge profits in recent years (despite a significant bust cycle in 2023) and that, in light of major cities’ higher costs of living & worker comp not keeping up w/ inflation. JP Morgan: Port strike could cost the economy $3.8B-$4.5B/day $BOAT $XLY $PBJ $XRT $SPY
Ro_Patel
Posted - 1 month ago
A federal judge will let expire a temporary restraining order against the Biden admin’s sweeping new student loan forgiveness plan. The development stems from a lawsuit against the aid package brought by 7 GOP-led states (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, North Dakota & Ohio) saying that the Dept of Ed's new debt cancellation effort is illegal. The Judge ruled that Georgia, which along with Missouri had led the lawsuit, failed to show it would be harmed by the administration's plan to forgive $73B in student loan debt held by millions of Americans. "There is no indication that the rule is being implemented to attack the states or their income taxes, so any loss of ... tax revenue is incidental and insufficient to create standing for Georgia," The plan could benefit as many as 3 in every 4 federal student loan holders or 27.6M borrowers, when combined w/ the admin’s previous effort $XLF $XLY $PBJ $XRT - $SPY
Ro_Patel
Posted - 09/27/24
Atlanta Fed 3Q24 GDP Nowcast Growth Estimate: +3.1% vs +2.9% previous vs initial cast of +2.8% on July 26 BEA revises income figures, personal savings rate for July has now been revised up by +200bps to 4.9% from a previously reported 2.9%. In Aug, personal savings rate was 4.8% or $1.05T. Personal Income rose +0.2% m/m & spending increased +0.2, both below forecasts. PCE index up +2.2% y/y in Aug (Fed preferred inflation metric) vs +3.4% a yr ago & +6.6% two yrs ago Core PCE up +2.7% y/y in Aug vs +3.8% a yr ago & +5.4% two yrs ago. $XRT $XLY $PBJ - $SPY $QQQ
Ro_Patel
Posted - 09/26/24
The avg APR for retail credit cards is a record-high 30.45%, up from 28.93% last year, 26.72% in 2022 & 24.35% in 2021. It’s also far higher than the current avg credit card interest rate of about 21%. Highest retail credit card APR is 35.99% which includes the Academy Sports + Outdoors Credit Card, Petco, Burlington, Piercing Pagoda, Good Sam, Big Lots & the Michaels Credit Card. Lowest retail credit card APR is 10.00% on the Amazon Secured Card followed by the Military Star card at 15.49% Retail credit cards are big money makers for retailers - 49% of Macy’s operating profits came from its credit card in FY22. NYFed: In 2Q24, credit card balances increased by $27B to reach $1.14T. FRED: In 2Q24, delinquency rate on credit card loans at all commercial banks in the US was 3.25%. For banks not among the 100 largest by assets, delinquency rate was higher at 7.88%. APRs need to come down after Fed rate cut but retailers blaming higher delinquency & lower sales volume. $XLF $XRT $PBJ $V $MA
Ro_Patel
Posted - 09/25/24
Top 40% of incomes acct for 62% of consumer spending Under 34 year-olds are under 18% of total consumer spending Consumption (ex-housing & investment) is 67.7% of US GDP #study $XLY $PBJ $XRT
Ro_Patel
Posted - 2 months ago
Retail sales rose +0.1% in August vs est of -0.2% decrease Meanwhile, retail sales in July were revised to a +1.1% increase from a prior reading that showed a +1% increase in the month Ex-auto & gas rose +0.2% vs est of +0.3% increase. Miscellaneous store retailers were the largest gainers, with sales rising +1.7%, while a -1.2% decline in sales at gasoline stations $XRT $PBJ $XLY $SPY $SPX
Ro_Patel
Posted - 2 months ago
US Census: Household incomes rose last year, marking the first increase since Covid-19 struck - Inflation-adjusted median household income was $80,610 in 2023, up +4% from the 2022 estimate of $77,54 $XLY $XRT $PBJ - $SPY $VIX
wizer
Posted - 2 months ago
$PBJ $SPY $XLF $XLY $XRT
Ro_Patel
Posted - 2 months ago
Jobless claims drop to 8-week low - unemployment benefits last week fell slightly to 227,000 New claims declined by 5,000 from 232,000 in the prior week - it’s the lowest level since early July. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast new claims to total 225,000 Raw claims slid to 189,389 last week from 192,741 two weeks ago — the fewest since last October. The number of people already collecting unemployment benefits in the US, meanwhile, fell by 22,000 to 1.84M $XRT $XLY $PBj $XLF $SPY
Endrovest
Posted - 2 months ago
$PBJ
🥪 **Going Long on PBJ (Invesco Dynamic Food & Beverage ETF)** 🥪
**$PBJ** just tested its recent breakout and looks ready to head higher! 📈
Here’s why I’m bullish: - **Breakout Confirmed**: PBJ tested its breakout level and is showing strong momentum, signaling potential for more upside. - **Defensive Play**: Food and beverage stocks tend to perform well during uncertain times, offering both growth and stability. - **Rate Outlook**: With a possible **0.25% rate cut** on the horizon, consumer staples like those in PBJ could benefit from a favorable macro environment. 🌍
Now could be the perfect time to go long and ride this momentum higher. Stay ahead of the curve with $PBJ! 🚀
#Investing #PBJ #FoodAndBeverage #StockMarket #ETF #Bullish #ConsumerStaples #Trading
Ro_Patel
Posted - 2 months ago
$UGA over -2SD move today AAA: National Average: $3.325 [down -12.77% y/y] $XLY $XRT $PBJ $XLF
Ro_Patel
Posted - 08/29/24
Conference Board's labor market differential (jobs "plentiful" minus jobs "hard to get") Glass half full: Historically above average Glass half empty: Trending down $XRT $XLY $XLF $PBJ $SPY
Ro_Patel
Posted - 3 months ago
BoA aggregated credit and debit card spending per household fell -0.4% y/y in July, compared to a -0.5% y/y decline in June. Within the total, services spending was stronger than goods. International travel remains a highlight, with consumers flocking to the Paris Olympics & Taylor Swift concerts. July was a strong month for services, including restaurants spending. The summer travel season appears to be providing momentum to consumer spending & internationally, some of this has been ‘event’ driven. Internal data shows a +27% rise in spending in Paris over the period July 25th to August 4th compared to the same days in 2023. We’ve noted many times that the labor market remains a key source of consumer spending momentum. Our data on after-tax wages & salaries growth continues to show robust wage growth with wages for lower- and middle-income households growing faster than higher-income households. It appears that higher-income households wage growth is improving. $XLY $XRT $PBJ $SPY $XLF
Ro_Patel
Posted - 3 months ago
UMich consumer sentiment index rises to 67.8 vs 66.6 forecast & up from 66.4 in the prior month. It is the 1st gain after 4 months of declines. A barometer of their expectations about the future rose to 72.1 from 68.8. That’s the highest level since April. Politics is having an impact on the data, according to researchers at Michigan. Sentiment for Democrats jumped +6% in the wake of Vice President Kamala Harris replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee. For Republicans, sentiment moved in the opposite direction, falling -5%. Another key part of the report is the measure of inflation expectations. Expectations for overall inflation over the next year held steady at 2.9% in August from the prior month, while expectations for inflation over the next 5 years remained at 3%, unchanged for the last 5 months. $XLY $XRT $PBJ $SPY $SPX
Ro_Patel
Posted - 3 months ago
US bank deposits climbed to $17.578T from $17.562T in prior week $XRT $PBJ $XLF $XLY - $SPY
Ro_Patel
Posted - 07/25/24
Numerator’s Consumer Sentiment Tracker was 57.1, an increase of +0.3 from May, coinciding with recent figures that showed overall retail sales in June beating estimates. Insights from the June tracker: ▪ 49% of consumers say their household’s financial situation is currently good or very good, up slightly from May. Only 16% said their finances are poor or very poor, in line with May. ▪ 40% of consumers said it’s very or somewhat easy to find employment in the current job market, in line with the previous month vs 27% think it’s somewhat or very difficult. ▪ 41% of consumers are very or somewhat comfortable spending money on discretionary purchases right now. ▪ 30.1% plan to use spare cash to travel or go on vacation, and 20.8% plan to make home repairs / improvements. ▪ 25% of all respondents think their finances will be better 1 year from now, 53% think they’ll be the same, while 23% think they’ll be worse $XRT $PBJ $XLY $XLP - $SPY
Ro_Patel
Posted - 5 months ago
CPI: 0.0% m/m vs est of +0.1% m/m & +3.3% y/y vs est of +3.4% y/y Core CPI +0.2% m/m vs est of +0.3% m/m & +3.4% y/y vs est of +3.5% y/y All items less food, shelter, energy, and used cars & trucks: +2.5% y/y Services: +5.2% y/y More than offsetting a decline in gasoline, the index for shelter rose in May, up +0.4% for the 4th consecutive month. The index for food increased +0.1%. The food away from home index rose +0.4%, while the food at home index was unchanged. The energy index fell -2%, led by a -3.6% decrease in the gasoline index. $XLY $PBJ $XRT $XLU $SPY
Ro_Patel
Posted - 6 months ago
Biden admin to forgive $7.7B in student debt for more than 160,000 borrowers The relief is a result of the US Dept of Education’s improvements to its income-driven repayment plans & Public Service Loan Forgiveness program. So far, the Biden Admin has excused the debt of 4.75M borrowers totaling $167B $XLY $XRT $PBJ $XLP - $SPY
Ro_Patel
Posted - 6 months ago
April Retail Sales were flat m/m vs est of +0.4% & March was revised down from +0.7% to +0.6%. Ex-autos & gas retail sales declined by -0.1% m/m vs expectations for a +0.1% increase. As a result, GDPNow 2Q24 falls to +3.8% from +4.2% on May 8 Some attributing softness due pull-forward from March's Amazon sales event & early Easter holiday Total household debt rose by $184B to reach $17.69T - Credit card balances declined, as is typical for the first quarter, falling by $14B to $1.12T. Nearly 9% of credit card balances & 8% of auto loans (annualized) transitioned into delinquency. Mortgages, student loans & HE Revolving delinquencies below prepandemic rates. Top offenders are the 18-29 cohort. $XRT $XLY $XLF $PBJ - $SPY
DonCorleone77
Posted - 04/30/24
$MCD $DIA $SPY $PBJ $YUMY Worth noting the consumer related comments and potential broader applications: McDonald's says FY24 won't be a 'typical year' for the broader industry Says U.S. comp sales "roughly flat" so far in Q2. Says macro headwinds larger than expected. Says industry traffic experiencing "flat to declining trends." Says consumer's affordability concerns "heightened." Says does not have a national value platform similar to competitors, only local. Sees a big opportunity to develop a national value message. Says consumers "very discriminating" with spending and "price weary." Says U.S. restaurant margins now back to 2019 levels. Says in "decent shape" with menu prices. Expects high single digit labor inflation in FY24 and "historic" food and paper inflation. Says franchisees in a "strong position."
Ro_Patel
Posted - 7 months ago
BoA: Total card spending per household rose +0.3% y/y in March, following the leap-year boosted +2.9% y/y increase in February While spending was soft on the month, the solid labor market continues to sustain consumer momentum. March saw strong jobs growth, and this appears to be reflected in strengthening after-tax wages and salaries growth in our data – with growth at the highest level since early 2023. Tax refunds may also provide additional support to households, with average refunds up by 5% this year through the end of March. While most consumers appear to be planning to save or pay down debt, there is a small rise in people saying they will go shopping. $XLY $XRT $XLP $PBJ - $SPY
Ro_Patel
Posted - 7 months ago
US initial jobless claims: 211K vs est of 215K & 221K previous
$XLY $XRT $PBJ $XLP $SPY
Ro_Patel
Posted - 8 months ago
Biden admin cancels another $6B in student loans for 78,000 borrowers, bringing his administration's total student debt cancellation to $144B for ~4M Americans The Supreme Court in June blocked Admin's broader plan to cancel $430B in student loan debt. The latest group includes public service workers, like teachers, nurses and firefighters, who qualify under the Public Service Loan Forgiveness Program created in 2007 to forgive student debt for Americans who go into public service. As of June 2023, $1.63T in outstanding loans held by ~43.4M Americans $XLF $XLY $XRT $PBJ - $SPY
wha1e
Posted - 8 months ago
Between 2017 and 2022, the number of farms in the U.S. declined by 141,733 or 7%. Acres operated by farm operations during the same timeframe declined by 20.1 million (2.2%), a loss equivalent to an area about the size of Maine.
Source: USDA
$KROP $YUMY $PBJ $EATV $SPY
Ro_Patel
Posted - 9 months ago
Retail sales declined -0.8% for January (down from a +0.4% gain in Dec) vs est for a -0.3% drop.
Retail Sales ex-autos dropped -0.6% vs est for a +0.2% gain.
Sales at building materials & garden stores were especially weak, sliding -4.1%. Miscellaneous store sales fell -3% and motor vehicle parts & retailers saw a -1.7% decrease.
The sales report is adj’d for seasonal factors but not for inflation, so the release showed spending lagged the pace of price increases - on a y/y basis, sales were up just +0.6% vs CPI up +3.1% and ex-food & energy +3.9%.
$XRT $XLY $HD $AMZN $PBJ
Ro_Patel
Posted - 9 months ago
Jan CPI - $PBJ $XRT $XLE $IAK $XLRE
aapl4kiksan
Posted - 9 months ago
$PBJ $SPY $XLF $XLY $XRT Is this a lot?
Ro_Patel
Posted - 9 months ago
Goldman: US now has all-time high $17.5T household debt, all-time high $12.3T mortgage debt (double the 2006 peak), all-time high $1.6T auto loan debt all-time high $1.1T credit card debt (up 50% since 2020 $SPY $XLY $XLF $XRT $PBJ
