BrickViews
Posted - 04/22/24
$XLE $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - what I’m looking for during this pullback in crude & overall market pullback is the relative strength of energy names. All of which are holding up very well so far. There are investors who missed the first move and are now allocating on the pullback. Also, profits takers that are coming back in with new entry along with funds that are just increasing their allocation. The market structure is dangerous, so hopefully these investors are shifting towards energy as a safe haven. I do believe in this commodity supercycle investors will still be more apt to buy oil over precious metals. Both will do well, but the overall market crowd is more comfortable with energy. Just look at what they are doing to gold this AM. Complete nonsense. Hysterical. These growth stocks and indexes are going to fall like Tesla. Long long way to go to even achieve just normal returns. But the market is dangerous and will move fast. That money should come to us. Patience. God Bless 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 04/17/24
$USO $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - here we go again. They will push oil & energy down overnight and it will be an uphill battle all day. Truth be told this Middle East situation is actually brewing to be much worse than expected. & funny enough no one talks about Ukraine anymore. However this is just another way energy prices have been propped up as we wait for extremely tight conditions which are coming. Why do you think the admin feels the need to float the idea of more spr releases? Because demand is soft? Get real. Really couldn’t have worked out better with all of the stars aligning. All that is left is the fed. I really don’t understand how no one calls out the federal debt. It’s bizarre. Why can’t the fed raise rates? The federal debt. What is the result? Loose financial conditions and more inflation. Deal with it Powell. Move the 2% target. Blame the Middle East. Blame anything, but it is the federal debt. Meanwhile congress runs deficits and spends like a spoiled child. God Bless 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 04/15/24
$USO $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - great to see what we’re looking at now. I don’t want any excuse of “war premium”. So the market has downplayed what I would call serious escalation. I must say only in this market would that attack on Israel be mocked, but I really don’t think much about what’s going on over there. What I see is dependence on US production which was down 750k barrels in January. That decrease hasn’t been seen in a long time. Also, the Middle East has made everyone forget about inflation and the box that the fed is in. The government will continue to spend, especially with global turmoil. I even keep seeing news of more student loan forgiveness. Another thing I don’t t care about, but it epitomizes the world we live in very well. The government is running huge deficits and creating an idea you don’t have to pay debts. Hmm. What are they teaching these days?!? Oil going up is not inflationary, it is the effect of inflation. Cause & effect. Inflation trade is it. God Bless 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 4 weeks ago
$USO $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - there will be a time where the price of oil decouples from rising rates and a stronger dollar. The problem for the market is that it won’t be the way that it anticipates that to unfold. With inflation the long end of yields should push up even if the fed cuts, but oil will still go up because of inflation. If rates go down the easing should cause more liquidity to pump the commodity supercycle. So no matter what oil wins. If the fed cuts short term interest rates, highly indebted companies will benefit the most while energy prices stay elevated. 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 1 month ago
$USO $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - first the big guys then the little guys. Business conditions are amazing & outlook is fantastic. Underinvestment in energy. Rig count + nat gas bottom + lower rates and these will all be bought up. Right now real investors are getting into energy, then the speculators will show up. Funny how wrong the investment community has been on energy. Shows how little expertise there is left in this market. They are just now buying XLE & XES. Low share count will make them move fast & furious. Have patience. Have faith. God Bless 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 1 month ago
$USO $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - you really have to admire the stupidity of the investment community right now. Follow the trend, use algos and stops. That is all fine. It’s creating the greatest market setup in history. Gone are the days of value investing. Only invest in what other people are buying. All based on price. All propped up on index funds. This is shifting. From dumb money to smart money. The dumb money has never ever experienced real investing. They got smoked in 2022, and lost the lesson literally one year later. Ha! That’s a long term time frame these days. They are going to have no idea what to do in this new environment. They’re buying the nasdaq when the 10y yield is up 2%!!! Like I said, remarkable stupidity…
macroQmicro
Posted - 03/28/24
Industry ETFs ranked by price strength and momentum re March 28 close: $JETS #OIH $XOP $XES $MSOS $BIZD
BrickViews
Posted - 03/22/24
$USO $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - final thought, with the overall market structure you have to realize there are huge risks. Every single time the oil chart has been ready to break out something happens. They stop the algos from bidding it up. That’s what I mean by price supression. First it was Covid, SPR release, taking away Iran and Venezuela sanctions, not enforcing Russia price caps, now it is full reliance on US production. People will say look at all the other oil fields ready to fill in. When?!? Once they have suppressed the price for years?!? Last time the chart looked good the price was 95, then it went down to about where it is now, then Middle East crisis broke out. We are at the same price as Oct 6. There is negative war premium. Now the chart looks better than ever. 50/200 day golden cross will be the breakout like never before. This time they don’t have any tricks. So yes I am patient but believe all time highs for oil are imminent. Can’t stop it. God Bless you as you wait 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 03/22/24
$USO $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - after the fed meeting this week it should be no surprise that investors continue to press forward with their old habits. Lower rates should mean higher valuations, so keep pumping tech p/e. However, many earnings are flat to down. They may beat expectations, but they are down yoy or flat. So I’m not that impressed with the go to names. I’m interested in undervalued stocks that will benefit from the new environment. I see inflation & lower rates. Energy prices have been suppressed. Oil will at some point break through 100. Higher energy prices will cause more rigs to come online. More rigs means more business for services. Lower rates is good for highly indebted companies. It is really that simple. In 2022 the big boys went first, then the small caps. XLE ERX XES all lead the charge, then the small caps catch up. Should happen again this time. With the current market structure it should be fast & furious. Still patient. Still have faith. God Bless 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 03/20/24
$USO $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - this is a day that the Lord has made let us rejoice and be glad in it! You really have to praise God for exciting days like this. Big day in the markets but lots happening in my personal life so I’ll stick to markets from here and make it quick! Not only do we have EIA, but we have the fed. I think this could be the day the commodity supercycle kicks off. Which is why I’m pleased to see commodities down right now. Of you want to have a long position you must lose money in very short term. So I like that indicator.
Why I think this fed meeting is so important is that we all know we are getting no change in rates. & we will get the meaningless projections as well. If this was one year ago with the data we have gotten it would be a .5 hike. But instead no change in policy is so accommodative for commodities. & it’s not like gov spending is down. Powell will talk about a hot economy. Higher for longer but still data dependent. Zero credibility. God Bless 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 03/13/24
$XES $XLE $NINE $KLXE $ICD - I am not at my computer but to the best of my knowledge XES will close above the 150 day ma. The last man standing on the daily chart. A weekly close above the 30 week would be very interesting. Just like 2022, the big boys and ETFs went first then the small caps
BrickViews
Posted - 03/13/24
$USO $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - just a few thoughts this morning on my way to the office. One is that API saved us. Finally showing draws on all products. That is undeniably bullish, something even bears can’t ignore. Since the market is dependent on technicals it is interesting to have observed that inevitable short term double top at 81. The second attempt I knew the setup was too good for the algos. Not that bad of a rejection at all and we have been trading sideways, invalidating it, and best case scenario it will creep up slowly to 79.50 or so and then break through that 81 level after the EIA report. Speaking of EIA, they upped their US production forecast for 2024. How timely. That is the last lie standing. Any cracks in US production and it’s game over. That’s what the Saudis are banking on. Drain America first. US production is the last man standing. I just simply don’t agree. More thoughts on my mind but yesterday was brutal for my portfolio. Never holds these days. God Bless 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 2 months ago
$USO $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - broken record here but every time I see rates and the dollar down I get excited. In my humble opinion it is the most significant indicator of the upcoming commodity supercycle. Rates going down while the dollar goes down is all fed policy driven. The Fed and excessive government spending have also helped us fend off a recession. That’s probably where my views differ from most. The US is trying so hard to avoid a recession. But the end result of all this policy is a commodity supercycle, which will be the cause of the next recession. It really could not be more clear. However, investors have the habit of investing in tech, or even zombie companies when rates go down. However the consumer is going to have to use their money on cost of living in the future, not EVs, vision pro, Facebook marketing, sports betting, weed, etc. Investors will realize this paradigm shift eventually. Patiently waiting. God Bless 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 2 months ago
$USO $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - caught the quick takeaway from Powell yesterday. I’m sorry to say but that man looks so weak. What happened to him? He looked like Biden. Anyways, I’m not surprised the toll that the job has taken on the Fed Chairman and President Biden. It takes effort to keep up such a roadshow Ponzi scheme. It’s literally on its last dying breath. The Ponzi scheme that is the US dollar strength. Inflation has won. Powell is defeated. The only reason energy is not up is because Biden had done every single thing possible to lower energy prices. It’s crazy they even tout him as some oil trader for selling 300m barrels at 95 and buying 30 back in the 70s. Can’t make this stuff up. This type of nonsense has consequences. & they will be dire. Every day we let this go on the energy crisis gets worse. It is coming. I honestly don’t understand how it has been ignored, but believing in fairy tales is better than facing reality. Sorry it’s negative but it’s not good. God Bless 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 2 months ago
$USO $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - rates are down and the dollar is down. Guess Powell said something. Any intelligent investor should understand that the fed is losing, and will lose very badly, in the fight against inflation. Rates are too high for the US government for debt service. The US government is broke. Powell will not raise rates anymore. In fact, he will lower them. & the small window of favorable data is coming to an end. They will have tricks up their sleeve, since they are literally in the worst bind imaginable. It all comes down to fed policy, and the fed policy has been suppressing a commodity supercycle. When the policy shifts to easing it is inevitable. Look at gold. Look at palladium today, up 10%. Just wait and see. They literally can’t do anything about it anymore. When the market shifts it will be fast and furious. Hang on no matter what. Have faith. God Bless 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 2 months ago
$NINE $KLXE $ICD - $XES is looking extremely bullish. You’d think in this environment it would not be. So an even more bullish indicator. I don’t care what the short term prices are, even though I post like I do. I’m almost on to long term losses. So when it flips I’ll be sitting on long term capital gains so I don’t have to give the US government any more than I have to. Used to trade short term, no longer. I’m an investor. God Bless 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 02/29/24
$USO $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - ok I had to add another thing because I didn’t realize the EIA would release US production numbers today. Although small, it is a decrease from November to December. I hope everyone understands how significant that is. Any decrease just exposes the weakness in the last man standing, US oil production. Production lags rig count by 12 months. Right on schedule. There is not a sole or financial model out there that anticipated a decrease in US oil production. If that really happens like I expect, and at a faster rate than anticipated, then it is seriously game over. Oil prices will fly and rigs will come back online. Been the thesis all along. So although a minor decrease in December, this could be a very significant turning point. God Bless 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 02/29/24
$XLE $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - one final thought of the day. XLE chart looks fantastic. But XES has held up surprisingly well. You would think XES would be demolished. If there is a true turnaround for services there is no telling how high it will go. I believe it will be the biggest leader in the energy rebound & commodity supercycle. 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 02/29/24
$USO $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - when the dollar falls and yields fall as well the algos are programmed to think recession. Sell oil. They are totally confused. Financial engineering has compromised market structure. Everything is driven by fed policy. & it literally does not matter whenever the fed cuts rates (I still believe 2 before the election with a third telegraphed for afterwards, minimum) that will trigger a commodity supercycle. Yes, that scary phrase that literally gets you banished from financial meetings these days. Denial is not a River in Egypt. It is coming. Last will be first and the first will be last. The days of underweight energy will be no more. Hang tight. Daily fluctuations won’t shake me out. God Bless 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 02/27/24
$XLE $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - this has been absolutely brutal. However, it literally has to be the bottom of the cycle. From left for dead in 2020, to booming in 2022, to back to dead again, I don’t think anyone could have predicted how the last few years could have gone. There have been literal phenomenons. Shale gas is a miracle. Saudi killed investors of early shale. Covid making the price of oil negative exposed the financial structure of commodity markets. Then unprecedented SPR releases to suppress price. Then ignoring of Russia & Iran sanctions. Finally record US production. Record US production was a wild card. Happened for a multitude of reasons. But that is about to crack. Production lags rig count. So when there are cracks in production price will go up and rigs will follow. I’m positive. Do I wish I had waited until now to invest? Of course. But rather then chase other investments I’m just extending the timeline. Here to stay. Glad I survived so far. Have faith. God Bless 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 02/23/24
$USO $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - there is a very common misconception that we can somehow maintain or grow the economy while using less energy. If we want to have economic prosperity then we must use fossil fuels. If we don’t then society will have to scale back very hard. So drastically that I truly believe the story of our lifetime will be the energy crisis. It isn’t even that far off. If US shake is at the peak of the bell curve it literally means civilization is at the peak of the bell curve. It may sound doomsday, but it is reality. Why doesn’t the market price of in? Why is energy 6% of the S&P? Well, financial models have been programmed with the belief that fossil fuels will be phased out. That input is flat out wrong. When that changes it will be fast and furious. It actually changes everything. Financial engineering will be exposed really badly. Like I said this is a crisis of a lifetime. On my mind and heart this morning is the first will be last & last first. God bless 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 02/22/24
$XLE $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - XLE chart looks fantastic. XES is getting there. Just like last time. The ETFs hit before the small guys get going. Different market, since small caps have been extremely neglected, but it will happen in the same order. I’ve been curious about these Russia sanctions tomorrow, wondering if it might be a catalyst of sorts, but then again sanctions only work if they’re enforced. Anything that adds reliance on US production is helpful. God Bless 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 02/22/24
$XLE $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - look at the top holders in energy. These are investors. Not day traders going on a discord or making a tik tok live to listen to a conference call. Yes, it isn’t fun. Who ever said making investments was supposed to be fun? If that’s in your investment criteria then do you. In the age of mmt (which even the fed believes at this point), investing hard earned money has turned into a game. Watch charts, outsmart algos, buy derivatives like it is a sports get or something. It is what it is. But investing is not a video game. Gone are the days of traditional finance. But I will stay true to the fundamentals until the day I am gone. Understand the investment, take advantage of opportunities, stay strong, keep the faith. Don’t let price action make the decision for you. The market in the long run is a weighing machine and in the short run a voting machine. I do not vote. God bless you and your investments! 💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 02/20/24
$XLE $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD
See you on the mountaintop 🏔️💪🙏
BrickViews
Posted - 02/20/24
$XLE $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD - it is all happening. Growing pains during the transition. There is only one way this all plays out. Commodity super cycle. We will look back and wonder why no one else saw it. At first it’s because they were busy with other investments. Soon they will all be here. I will not be shaken out. 💪🙏
deftrades
Posted - 02/16/24
$XES am tapping out at 83.7x after a couple days of big moves - will take 8% in 8 days if that’s what the market is giving - on my perpetual watch list for low RSI re-entry
BrickViews
Posted - 02/13/24
$XLE $XES $NINE $KLXE $ICD
Silly but understandable 💪🙏
deftrades
Posted - 3 months ago
$XES started position in long-term account - RSI in the 30s and a strong sector…will buy while no one wants it and hold until they do
BrickViews
Posted - 01/30/24
$KLXE $NINE $ICD $XES - textbook buying opportunity for these names. Services dragged down from the aramco news, but none of these are impacted. In fact, who will pick up the slack? USA, USA 🇺🇸
