DavyDaveCharts Posted - 8 hours ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF daily chart update: nice follow through on that basing above the volume gap. Today's price action pushed us above the bearish imbalance (red rectangle), an observation that had some of us wondering if this was a dead cat bounce or not. The overall accumulation channel is still well intact, which leads me to believe that we could very well still have another 6 - 8% left of gains until the end of the quarter.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 2 days ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF daily chart update: that Fibonacci golden zone really proved to be an important level, where we based for a strong bounce. While the pullback did not mitigate all the gaps, we did end up closing that overextension from the median 20 day moving average. The structure has been bullish, as stated in previous recent posts. We started a new Higher Low for this structure.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 6 days ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF weekly chart: I stated what I felt was relevant on the previous daily chart posted, however, I wanted to highlight the presence of this volume gap. Selling exhausted before we could tap it but be aware that this could yank price down another 2.5-3%., if it dips into it. That wouldn't necessarily be bad, however, as it would force us to content with that imbalance.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 6 days ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF daily chart update: the bleeding continued today but, as we've been saying since this election week rally took place, it is natural for profits to be taken after such an impulsive move. Remember, we also observed the many imbalances that were left unmitigated. I see a good potential for more downside, around 2%, if we don't base where we closed today. Something interesting happened today, look at where the bottom wick formed; at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Will this be the discount or is it deeper below, inside the imbalance created by the gap?

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 1 week ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF daily chart: we've added to our position on this dip. We see more risk/reward in small caps than in large caps, for the near and midterm. Technical side of the house, the 9 EMA has finally caught up to the candles. That being said, this doesn't automatically translate to support, but it does tell us that we're getting less overextended from the median, by reducing that big gap between the candle and the EMA.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 1 week ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund review: $DWCPF $VXF This chart is from last year and, where the blue arrow points, is where I believe we are today, give or take some red/green days.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 1 week ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF daily chart update: the cooling off that we've been anticipating his here and, to be frank, much needed. I see two potential pivot scenarios, annotated on the paths drawn, could address current imbalances. The volume shelf seems the likelier pivot point but, below that, we have a large volume gap (purple) that coincides with that large bullish imbalance. The stochastic RSI (TOP) is confirmation that we are cooling: dipping further or just entering some rangebound price action. We can also observe this in the accumulation/distribution ascending channel (bottom). The overall trend is still bullish with consistent higher highs and lows on both the chart and the accumulation/distribution indicator.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 1 week ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF update: we are finally getting a much-needed pull back to cool off. Currently dipping into one of the imbalances below. The question is if this will be the discount or not.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 1 week ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF daily update: an impressive start to the week, putting our current swing at 10.68% profit, thus far. This rally has left behind some big gaps and imbalances in its wake, however. We continue to keep this swing open as even a 5% correction would still have us doing well on this trade and expect dips to be local while likely bought up quickly in controlled selling. We also have bit of an over extension from the 9/21 exponential moving averages (EMA). If no pull back to find support there, we could see consolidation as the EMAs catch up.

HostileCharts Posted - 1 week ago

$RSP $IWM $VXF - The Triplets Look Good

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 1 week ago

Thrift Savings Plan S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF review: just epic! That's all we have to say about this week! Well, a little more; the strength in this fund is surprising given how high the 10 year yield has been. We have to pop the hood open and see whats making this baby purr... the sectors. Tech has been holding this fund up for a while but it can't do it alone and the financials and industrial sectors are catching up and pulling their weight. We might even see money flowing from the exhausted tech sector into the financials, industrial and consumer services. I don't see the healthcare sector really doing well in the near term. The technicals show some areas below that could potentially serve as a pivot from a local correction. Just like C-Fund, the action this week left behind some big gaps and imbalances to fill. Will these be a discount for window dressers?

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 2 weeks ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund review $DWCPF $VXF: 73% of the sectors of $DWCPF, the benchmark index of the S-Fund, is comprised of the Industrial, Financials, Technology, Consumer Services and Health Care. We see Technology has reigned as the biggest driver, but other sectors have been lagging, until recently. A Trump administration would benefit the financial sector, with the propensity to reduce regulations. Another sector that could stand to benefit would be the Industrial Sector, as tariffs would, in theory, increase demand and manufacturing for domestic products. Finally, as these tech stocks become too expensive, we can see some new money flowing into financials and industrials, playing catch-up to tech and, thus, elevating the entire S-Fund / Index.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 2 weeks ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $VXF $DWCPF update: the election results and the fund's response to it seems more like a knee jerk reaction and today we saw the profit taking, creating a long top wick. A pull back is natural, at this point. The only question is how deep of a pullback are we potentially looking at here. If we touch this volume gap, we likely go back to pre-election night range. That doesn't invalidate the bullish structure of higher highs and lows, however. Even a 5% correction from here, still sustains the bullish structure.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 2 weeks ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF update: not much in change since the last post, except WOW! This swing is up almost 8%! Remember why we stayed: bullish structure and that resistance flipping to support! As with C-Fund, don't be surprised by some natural profit taking which would likely occur in the next few days or so.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 2 weeks ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF: remember the previous posts about the structure remaining bullish, higher highs and lows. This is why we held. Although it did look vulnerable, we were compelled to stay in this position because of previous resistance turning to support. What an impressive opening today, with that HUGE gap up. Now we keep an eye on the dollar index and the 10 year yield, so far their rallies aren't impacting S-Fund, yet.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 2 weeks ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Fam, are you ready for this today!? Huge Gap up at open for S-Fund! $RTY_F $IWM $DWCPF $VXF

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 2 weeks ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF daily chart: much to my surprise, the markets are moving up, in contrast to my expectation that we would trade sideways until the election results were in. The bullish structure remains with a series of higher highs and higher lows, after basing and finding support at previous resistance. We have a cross over on the stochastic RSI and a nascent curl on the MACD.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 2 weeks ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF: despite the weakness in this fund, lately, it still has managed to close above previous resistance but even this support is in jeopardy. Of course, the election is a very big concern for the markets and the challenges that the economy will face with both of the candidates' stated goals. The 10 Year Yield is very high, still. It will likely be that way after the election since both candidates are likely to add trillions to the national debt and the bond vigilantes get louder. Will a Trump/Harris administration take heed? I doubt it either of them will.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 2 weeks ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF review with the 10 Year Yield: For now there is a disconnect between the Federal Funds Rate and the 10 Year Yield. Why does it matter to the S-Fund? The S-Fund is comprised of companies that are smaller in market capitalization and these companies are very sensitive to interest rates. The Fed Funds Rate has more relevance on interest paid on shorter term loans. The 10 Year Yield exerts more influence on longer term loans. Smaller companies tend to borrow money to expand and/or sustain their business. The more interest they have to pay on these loans, the more difficult it becomes for them to borrow and this can effect their earnings. While I remain invested in S, we have to be cautious as the 10 Year yield seems to have a nascent break out of the descending channel that has hoisted S Fund since November of last year.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 2 weeks ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) C $SPX $SPY $VOO and S $DWCPF $VXF Funds correlation to the Japanese Yen review: In August we were painfully reminded of how important the Yen Carry Trade is to the performance of our markets. As long as Bank of Japan (BOJ) keeps interest rates low, Japanese investors can borrow money cheaply and invest in US equities and assets, which can bring much higher returns. As long as Japan maintains their low interest rates, the Yen Carry Trade can continue to fuel our markets. Caution is warranted, however, as BOJ sounds less Dovish and there is a growing consensus that they will raise interest rates in their December meeting. On the Weekly chart, the Yen Index presents several bearish and bullish imbalances. It ended the week with a spinning Doji which could signal potential reversal to the upside, not good for C and S funds.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 2 weeks ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF update: the narrative is still the same as my last update on the C-Fund with fear and greed illustrated in vertical bands. We remain in this fund.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 2 weeks ago

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF update: We might have to start thinking about an exit from this fund with the 10 Year Yield at 4.33%. This is not good, at all, for this fund.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 10/31/24

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF update: Not as bad as C-Fund. We lost the trend line support, after pivoting to the down side inside the bearish (red) imbalance, we identified a few days ago. That being said, I love where the bottom wick formed, at previous resistance. 10 Year Yield currently at 4.28, after hitting a high of 4.33 earlier today. For now, the 10 year's slowing momentum has propped S-Fund. While tenuous, the bullish structure remains.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 10/31/24

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) update: Blood on the streets. C and S funds taking it to the chin BUT zooming out, the technical structure, while tenuous, does remain bullish. For now, a natural correction. $SPX $SPY $DWCPF $VXF

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 10/29/24

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF update: the story of the day, besides Bitcoin's huge break out, was interest rates. The 10 Year Yield peaked at 4.34 and closed at 4.26. It's almost as if the interest rate cut never happened in September! This fund is particularly sensitive to interest rates, besides the F-Fund, for obvious reasons. On the technical side of the house, S-Fund's bullish trend remains bullish, after a flip of previous resistance, in the bullish imbalance BUT, on the topic of imbalances, it does find itself trading within a bearish imbalance. The recent bottom also coincides with a trend line support, we observed today. It is important that this trend line is respected in the coming days/ weeks for the trend to remain bullish.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 10/28/24

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF: as Deb Crown would say, "nice pop out of the gate!". While this was an expected response to the dip into the bullish imbalance, I'd like to just make you aware of a bearish imbalance that, in my bullish bias last week, I neglected to chart. Now, while imbalances have a tendency to be resolved, they are not guaranteed pivot areas. Taking this into account and the overall bullish structure of higher highs and lows, I lean bullish.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 10/26/24

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF Technical Analysis: The structure remains bullish in a series of higher highs and lows. Below (violet) is the US 10 Year Yield, with its inverse relationship to this fund. Since November of 2023, the 10 Year has been on a long term structure of lower highs and lower lows. As long as we don't close at above 4.30, this down trend for the 10 Year should remain intact and push S-Fund higher. This week will be important, as we will need a rejection of the 10 Year at around 4.30, if we are to keep the S-Fund on this bullish trend.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 10/24/24

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF update: thus far, the scenario centered on the bullish imbalance and the resistance to support flip appears to be playing out. We remain positioned 35% in this fund. Very welcomed development in the 10 Year Yield, with its drop from 4.25 to 4.20, which certainly helped S-Fund form it's nascent pivot. Is this the discount new money has been waiting for?

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 10/24/24

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF update: thus far, the scenario of a dip into the imbalance and that serving as a discount zone, is playing out. We remain in this swing with 35% of the account in S-Fund.

DavyDaveCharts Posted - 10/23/24

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund $DWCPF $VXF update: we've entered the bullish imbalance zone, where a pivot is anticipated. We remain 35% in S-Fund.