LarryYMB
Posted - 4 hours ago
$AVDL don't get excited, we just have to recover to the pre ER level and if people have brain they can do their own math and figure that there is no risk left and only upside in this company.
HoHoHoHum
Posted - 4 hours ago
$AVDL ha! Finally we are getting some traction
t_baggin_u
Posted - 16 hours ago
$AVDL Calm down young Padawan 😅 .
The two green candles at the end had a volume of 1.29K 😂 .
That'll be forgotten tomorrow morning.
Options_Gawt
Posted - 19 hours ago
$AVDL big sh*t poppin, lil bear shit stoppin!
Underover1
Posted - 21 hours ago
$AVDL something is cooking, jumped over 4% in AH
Options_Gawt
Posted - 1 day ago
$AVDL dont miss out!
speed717
Posted - 1 day ago
$AVDL At worst, in 3 years AVDL will be at 8000 on drug and revenue of over $1billion. That translates to $7/sh in eps. So we will be easily over $100/ sh at that point. So sub$11 is a good price, not sure what people are missing here.
bernoneill
Posted - 1 day ago
$AVDL Key points: Noted Nov 2025 case in Delaware is coming to address delay to market. Market segments: 1) Switch 14k , 2) Prev discontinues 10-15k and 3) New to Oxy 3-4k per year, but seeing that expand now with Lumryz. Confirmed 1B market potential Tom stated made BE in Q3 and now CFP in Q4 Saw 700 in Q3 and expect no slowdown in Q4 Switch is smaller as we move from "early adapters" to "slow adapters" group - which is larger. Divis says they are working to get more docs prescribing and help patients stay on Lumryz if it is working. Plan is to be leader in New to SO and as that grow, become SO overall market leader. No slowdown expected in Q4 - keeping 700 trend. Income: 120k/yr is from paying patients and 100k/yr is paying plus free patients. Inventory issue is with pharmacies holding controlled substance at storage limit - no loss, just shifts things to next quarter? No guidance given, but "under evaluation" Divis said. Got ER feedback from ER and wanted to assure people not at a plateau.
bernoneill
Posted - 1 day ago
$AVDL Good fireside today IMHO. Tom says got to BE in Q3 and now at CFP in Q4. No guidance yet, but they addresses all the other concerns from ER as far as I could tell. No plateau, no slowdown. Sounded good to me - worth a listen. GLA
Bluedev
Posted - 1 day ago
$AVDL
Stark50
Posted - 1 day ago
$AVDL this is up to $.25 in after hours Analyst raised target price to $25 from $22
You heard it here 1st!
Cheers
Bretm50
Posted - 3 days ago
$AVDL JAZZ has recently sold a bunch of AVDL stock lately, wonder what significance if any has to do with the highly unusual drop in sp.
Bluedev
Posted - 3 days ago
$AVDL I haven’t followed the specifics of buyers/sellers for AVDL, but it would seem that there is a very large amount of selling pressure. Where is it coming from? My main concern would be newer institutional holders (I think Goldman was one). I’m very surprised it has moved this far down. What are we missing here? It’s down like 35% from pre earnings & that’s with the win on the lawsuit.
Khockey11
Posted - 3 days ago
$AVDL what would cause management’s commentary on revenue per patient to go from $120K to $100K on the last call?
They previously didn’t explicitly say inclusive of free drug on the prior calls where they say $120k, which they did last week, so not sure about that.
Higher gross to net than expected? Maybe more and more patient starts new to oxybates at a lower dose?
Khockey11
Posted - 4 days ago
$AVDL there’s a hedge fund with a large put position in this stock, who also happens to have Jazz as their second largest holding
Vestal Point Capital
Unsure if the puts are sold or bought, can anyone from options chain?
st0ck2020
Posted - 4 days ago
$AVDL from Q2 Turning to operating expenses. We reported $44.2 million of GAAP operating expenses for the third quarter, which includes $6.4 million of non-cash charges comprised of stock-based compensation of $5.4 million and depreciation and amortization of $1 million. We expect that for the remainder of 2024 recurring quarterly cash operating expenses will be in the range of $40 million to $45 million and non-cash operating expenses will be in the range of $5 million to $7 million. fromQ3 After adjusting for these items, cash operating expenses were $37.8 million, and we expect that recurring quarterly cash operating expenses for the fourth quarter will be in the range of $40 million to $45 million, which includes the additional patient and provider support investments Richard noted earlier, and noncash operating expenses will be in the range of $6 million to $7 million. so cash operating expense was less than expected in Q3?
st0ck2020
Posted - 5 days ago
$AVDL My concern is that they added 500 each quarter before and only 400 in Q3 although there is fastest growth of new-to-oxybate patients, which means they added fewer switch patients than before. They started 700 and 400 retained in Q3 and probably the same number of patients with fewer dropouts in previous quarters. So patient source has changed with more new-to-oxybate patients and fewer switch patients but total remains the same as before. If they get the same number of switch patients and growing number of new-to-oxybate patients the net increase should be more than 500 in Q3. The question is why fewer switch patients in Q3? We should expect more or at least the same number of switch patients as they are are more familiar with the process to switch a patient, but Q3 results does not support this.
speed717
Posted - 5 days ago
$AVDL A wise man once told me that management gets a report card everyday in the form of the stock price. This management gets an F and needs to be replaced. With a superior product and a $2billion plus opportunity in a proven market, their failure should force everyone to email the Board and tell them to bring in competent managers. After a legal win that removed an existential threat to the company, the shares should be trading in the 20’s. The board needs to be reminded who they work for, SHAREHOLDERS!
Khockey11
Posted - 5 days ago
$AVDL the orexin agonist from takeda looks like it could be filed for approval in 26/27, on market maybe in 27. Has anyone done digging into this class of medication? How would it affect sodium oxybate as a treatment? Could they be taken together?
st0ck2020
Posted - 5 days ago
$AVDL from er call: we expect higher gross to net deductions, which will primarily impact inventory in the channel at December 31st, given that insurance plans reset deductibles and increased co-pay systems in the new year. Finally, based on our current plans and assumptions, we expect that cash flow will be positive during the fourth quarter. The insurance will impact Q1, not Q4. I don't understand why the CFO talked about this in Q3. Shouldn't he focus on current and next Q? It gave me the impression that Q4 will be really bad when i first read "we expect higher gross to net deductions ", i know he meant Q4 after finishing reading all. Q4 usually should be a strong quarter.
BobbyPeruJLTC
Posted - 5 days ago
$AVDL divis dufus does this guy even know what’s going on? After lawsuit resolution and earnings going to the biotech graveyard. Yikes. Is this the Lordstown of oxtbates?
B1000
Posted - 6 days ago
$AVDL a life changing drug with long term revenue streams. It won’t stay at these levels for long.
Otus
Posted - 6 days ago
$AVDL the Kennedy. Appointment isn’t helping. The whole sector is getting whacked.
Otus
Posted - 6 days ago
$AVDL I’ve been doing this for many decades and this is one of the most oversold stocks I’ve ver seen. Buy with both hands!!
mdouvier
Posted - 6 days ago
$AVDL I read some discussion boards about patient reviews and most people like lumryz. I’m super surprised how much this is dropping
HoHoHoHum
Posted - 6 days ago
$AVDL i have been accumulating it between 11 and 12. I had to liquidate some other positions. Hope I am not wrong, GL longs!
Bornjever
Posted - 6 days ago
$AVDL besides the value we have and patience we need to exercise it is almost guaranteed that any small company especially gets attacked by shorts as they know many weak hands will run after PDUFA is approved and the price has not even moved up the way it should. So if you sell then you lose all or most of your profit. The shorts get paid for shorting and then they buy the stock we deserve the profit from and they steal it for huge discount and we may not make any money.
Bornjever
Posted - 6 days ago
$AVDL like old Charlie Munger always said to know what you hold. Revenue was 50 million for quarter 3 of this year and so it is up by 43 million from 3rd quarter of 2023. I will wait till stupid stuff is over because patience is what Munger said we need more of to be a successful investor. Have a great weekend!!! VERY
lebranjames
Posted - 6 days ago
$AVDL this seems like a massive overreaction. The market is spooked but seems like a great buying opportunity if the revenue stays on track in 2025. Hoping this is just a hiccup