MyStocksZoom Posted - 1 week ago

$CANOQ Not all 1b is operating cost. Majority is good will, depreciation, accelerated depreciation, MSP credit loss, & interest expense. MCR for 2023 is 93%. Kent's savings plan will make it profitable starting 2025. 270,000 members based on 2023 10K which is around 1.5X of $OSH hence 2bn vs 3b revenue. Cano dropped a lot of low revenue per month medicaid $190 and ACA $14 members. Cano kept a lot of high monthly MA $1,119 & ACO REACH $1,368. $HUM bought TX & NV to merge it with their Conviva centers. Kent received a low ball offer in 2023 and was probably instructed by the buyer to go through Ch11 to clean up the dark leases & unwanted contracts to get a better buyout offer. $ELV is not even listed as a shareholder of Cano so it doesn't own 91%. If the buyout price is $2.9bn then $1.65bn debt ($300mil already included) gets paid off. The remaining $1.25bn goes to Cano shareholders which is around $250 per share.

MyStocksZoom Posted - 1 week ago

@ZackInvest008 @AvantGardeGroupInc @CriticalCare $CANOQ sold non-core TX and NV centers to $HUM for .81x yearly revenue so at least 1x revenue for prime FL centers is reasonable. 1x revenue is around $2.9bn now for 2024 so a 1 for 2 swap deal with $ELV will give Cano shareholders $250 per share ($2.9bn=$1.65bn debt+$1.25bn equity from 5mil shareholders). Elevance with $116bn market cap, $500 share price, 232.7mil outstanding shares doesn't need shareholder approval for a small 2.5mil share swap deal. Remember $OSH $2bn revenue got 5x revenue buyout by $CVS for around $10bn.

Digital_Waffle_Pirate Posted - 01/26/24

@CrossoverNinja its a good business - management fucked up, but IMO this thing is better that $OSH ever was and look where that went.

lucullus1 Posted - 4 months ago

@ShakeThatMoneyMaker @7Peonverde $osh debts where similar size as CANO. however they didn't have a loan shark loan like Marlow negotiated last year. I agree CANO have managed to put themselves in an unenviable position. However they have more revenue than OSH after having paired back the loss making outlets to the core ones in Florida. They are struggling for cash and are vulnerable. To your point they are not equals but one sold for 5 x revenues the other is for sale for 1/50th x revenue. There is a large gap between those two numbers which is hard to explain logically other than CANO allowed itself to get into a bad cashflow position and some people have shorted it to near zero on the back of that. But the business still has revenues near $3 bill and there seems to be a market for this type of business given $OSH

lucullus1 Posted - 4 months ago

@7Peonverde why did $OSH sell for 5x rev then? It's exact same business model

lucullus1 Posted - 11/29/23

@Namhguab yes but there are similar businesses with less debt who's market cap is massively less than $osh. $AGL,$CMAX come to mind. Maybe a more realistic scenario would be 1-2 x revenue in a sale

lucullus1 Posted - 11/27/23

$CANOQ can anyone give me a reason why $OSH sold for 5 x revenue. I just looked at $agl which seems a similar sort of company with no debt and yet its currently trading at 1.15 x revenue. It is in a much healthier position than $cano because of its low debt levels. But in other metrics it looks very similar, medical services costs as a % seem to be similar to $cano in last Qtr. If $CANOQ EV was 1 x Revenue we would be looking conservatively at $1.4 bill equity $1.4 bill debt. So plenty of upside from $40 mill Problem for $cano is they are definitely going to run out of money this qtr unless KENT pulls something out of the bag operations wise and/or sales wise. But all this would have been obvious to D E Shaw when they bought in for 5%+ @ average $8.40. So they must believe there is value here knowing the possible outcomes

PittsburghTrader Posted - 5 months ago

$CANOQ I think $202 buyout would still represent a pretty distressed price ... $AMZN paid ~ 4x Revenue/EV for their acq at BOY & $CVS paid 5x for $OSH at BOY (the one it bought when Marlow killed their potential buyout at rumored ~ $1400/ share) ... interest rates are higher & ~ $1.3B in Debt but still growing Revenue & Kent’s restructuring may actually set $CANOQ on a path twd profitability ($OSH had similar loss profile though less debt... why look at EV) ... maybe 3-4x Revenue to EV if not a distressed sale?

hotRails Posted - 5 months ago

$CANOQ Napkin math for giggles and/or guidance of recent CVS/OSH valuation as applied to CANO. CVS acquires $OSH for $10.6B (or $39/sh). In acquiring $OSH, CVS got 159,000 patients and $1.32B debt. So: ($10.6B - $1.32B)/159,000 patients = $58,365 CVS paid per patient {proof for above calculation: ($10.6B - $1.32B)/245,000,000 $OSH shs outstanding = $37.88 sh} For optics, if the same multiple were paid by purchaser per Cano patient: (($58,365 x 380,000 CANO Patients) - 1,230,000,000 CANO debt)/ 5,410,000 CANO shs = $3872.22sh CVS/OSH value of CANO stock If a purchaser would pay: 50% of CVS/OSH value pays $1936.11/Cano sh after debt 25% of CVS/OSH value pays $968,05/Cano sh after debt 10% of CVS/OSH value pays $387.22/ Cano sh after debt 5% of CVS/OSH value pays $193.61/ Cano sh after debt The aforementioned clearly demonstrates "the near complete destruction of shareholder value" as stated in Sternlicht's recent filing.

hotRails Posted - 5 months ago

@JinxyMcSqueezy Yes, quite a ride and learning experience for me also...but, just because this has been a roller coaster and is currently at $1.10/sh there are some very smart people in the room (and behind the scenes) and know that 380,000 members consolidated into one state is a significant asset!! Most importantly, a buyer (HUM?) knows this also...as there are "only" 5.4 million shs now value could rocket quickly with either a buy out or good Q3 ER news. If in doubt about value....look at my post from yesterday which applies CVS' $OSH buyout valutaion to CANO...it is a jaw dropper...

hotRails Posted - 5 months ago

$OSH $CANOQ It has been pointed out by two astute ST readers that my math was off a bit...actually quite a bit. I apologize and offer this adjusted measure and parameters (for giggles and/ or guidance). For optics, if the same multiple were paid by Humana per Cano patient: ($58,365 x 380,000 CANO Patients) - 1,230,000,000 CANO debt = $20,948,700,000 CVS/OSH Value of CANO $20,948,700,000/ 5,410,000 CANO shs = $3872.22sh CVS/OSH value of CANO stock I would posit that the ludicrous max amount that would probably not be paid by Humana is 3872.22/sh for Cano after debt. If Humana would pay: 50% of CVS/OSH value pays $1936.11/Cano sh after debt. 25% of CVS/OSH value pays $968,05/Cano sh after debt. 10% of CVS/OSH value pays $387.22/ Cano sh after debt. 5% of CVS/OSH value pays $193.61/ Cano sh after debt.

hotRails Posted - 5 months ago

$CANOQ Napkin math of recent CVS/OSH valuation as applied to CANO. CVS acquires $OSH for $10.6B (or $39/sh). In acquiring $OSH, CVS got 159,000 patients and $1.32B debt. So: ($10.6B - $1.32B)/159,000 patients = $58,365 CVS paid per patient {proof for above calculation: ($10.6B - $1.32B)/245,000,000 $OSH shs outstanding = $37.88 sh} For optics, if the same multiple were paid by Humana per Cano patient: ($58,365 x 380,000 CANO Patients) - 1,230,000,000 CANO debt = $20,948,700,000 CVS/OSH Value of CANO $20,948,700,000/ 5,410,000 CANO shs = $374.08/sh CVS/OSH value of CANO stock I would posit that the max that would be paid by Humana is 374.08/sh for Cano after debt. If Humana would pay: 90% of CVS/OSH value pays $336.67/Cano sh after debt. 80% of CVS/OSH value pays $299.64/Cano sh after debt. 70% of CVS/OSH value pays $261.85/ Cano sh after debt. 60% of CVS/OSH value pays $224.44/ Cano sh after debt. 50% of CVS/OSH value pays $187.04/ Cano sh after debt.

TrendyChart Posted - 10/31/23

Upcoming Earnings Report: $OSH Oak Street Health will be reporting on 11/10/2023 at 4:00PM | Are you on the optimistic or cautious side regarding earnings?

TrendyChart Posted - 10/31/23

Upcoming Earnings Report: $OSH Oak Street Health will be reporting on 11/10/2023 at 4:00PM | What's your take on the earnings potential of this stock?

PittsburghTrader Posted - 10/29/23

@ComeonBarry @JinxyMcSqueezy @MonkeyKnuckles @lucullus1 definitely worth a Lot more... even $AMZN paid 4x Revenue to EV for their deal at BOY & $CVS 5x for $OSH even with higher rates .. 2-3x Revenue to EV w/b a fire sale

TrendyChart Posted - 10/26/23

Upcoming Earnings Report: $OSH Oak Street Health will be reporting on 11/06/2023 at 4:00PM | What's your sentiment regarding earnings for this stock?

DonCorleone77 Posted - 6 months ago

$OSH Citi upgrades 'outlier' Oshkosh to Buy on earnings momentum Citi analyst Timothy Thein upgraded Oshkosh to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $115, up from $110. As the machinery sector's earnings revision cycle matures, Oshkosh is an "outlier" with earnings momentum accelerating into 2024, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says the Street is underappreciating the company's margin upside in Vocational, a key factor in its 2024 estimates being 12% ahead of consensus. Concerns regarding AWP capacity growth are valid and could limit multiple expansion, but the stock has 2% upside on earnings growth alone, contends Citi.

TrendyChart Posted - 6 months ago

Upcoming Earnings Report: $OSH Oak Street Health will be reporting on 10/13/2023 at 4:00PM | Are you looking for robust or lackluster earnings from this stock?

PittsburghTrader Posted - 09/28/23

@cfox definitely, hopefully, they can get a better rate for the FL Medicaid customers as on 8/10 said had several bids, but even at that $4k/customer...should remove concerns and then can drive rest of $CANOQ closer to those $OSH valuation of 5xRevenue to EV

lucullus1 Posted - 7 months ago

$CANOQ To those who think there is no way anyone pays more than a few cents for $CANOQ …wise up. The company is valued at about 150 mill and has debts around $1.2 bill. So Enterprise value $1.35 bill. Or just lease than 0.5 x revenue. Last similar business sold was $OSH which sold at 7 x revenues. It was not a very different business but let’s say CANO is not in the driving seat because of Marlowe’s incompetence. So if $CANOQ sold at 27 cents it would be at 1/14th the price of $OSH. However even if it sold at $2 that would only be an enterprise value of around $2.2 bill ish. Or less than 1 x revenue. Even to get to 1 x revenue you would need a price of around $3. That would be a 1/7 of the price of $OSH. That is a 10 bagger from here. All numbers from memory but not hugely wrong

PittsburghTrader Posted - 7 months ago

@techjerk that’s the question... obviously, distressed asset sales likely reduce potential prices $CANOQ can get but $AMZN closed an acquisition in this space at 4x Revenue to EV & similar $CVS acq of $OSH was at 5x Revenue to EV ... both fast growing but significant losses

PittsburghTrader Posted - 7 months ago

$CANOQ PE takeout would definitely try to get it on the cheap... maybe 2-3x Revenue But given this year comps of 4x for $AMZN & 5x to EV for $OSH from $CVS , likely get best value from a strategic after liquidity concerns put to bed by closing sale of FL Medicaid business

PittsburghTrader Posted - 08/29/23

@StreetWallNY any buyer interested in trying to takeout $CANOQ would like to do it at some premium to current share price while Mark Kent (& likely the ‘Group’) would like it closer to the $OSH comp that closed earlier this year & Mark may be able to make the case that his restructuring already implemented that anticipated to have $50m/yr cost benefit (& additional actions that seem likely to improve profitability prospects)... could press for better valuation as losses less than were at $OSH

PittsburghTrader Posted - 08/29/23

@StreetWallNY all ur points are well taken but my thoughts, again...extremely unlikely, but if that FL Medicaid business is as big as I hope & they get something in 2-3x Revenue range (still distressed given $OSH was 5x & $AMZN acq was 4x) ... that would likely give them enough cash to remove Going Concern & even if just use $100m to do share buybacks, could get stock back > $1 to remove delisting worries & give time to negotiate full sale of $CANOQ at something that isn’t distressed valuation

StreetWallNY Posted - 08/27/23

$CANOQ 1) although CANO has lots of disadvantages in the negotiations of a buyout, it does have one thing in favor of it… Let’s look at this as corporate competition between the Bidders. First, $CVS owns Aetna and CVS has been desperately acquiring companies to compete in this field… just look at the $OSH deal. Humana has the ROFR, but if Humana is being a bully for whatever reason, they stand to loose ground by not matching any bid that comes in. Sure, Humana can threaten to pull its members from the CANO infrastructure but this would also come at a cost to their well balanced corporate strategy. Then you have PE firms. These guys love to acquire companies outright and put the proper management in place to milk the business. I believe everyone here knows that VBC has value to these big players, specially if it’s well integrated into a bigger ecosystem. Point is. It makes sense for PE firms and CVS and $AMZN and other companies to not only wanna buy cano for infrastructure..

STCKPRO Posted - 8 months ago

$OSH NEW ARTICLE : Strive Health Announces Multi-Year National Collaboration with Oak Street Health https://www.stck.pro/news/OSH/59617190/

PittsburghTrader Posted - 8 months ago

@StreetWallNY I think they could spin that especially if get the whole thing for less than what paid for $OSH

PittsburghTrader Posted - 8 months ago

$CANOQ even with $CVS cutting jobs, their PBM business is the problem area & something like $CANOQ s/b valuable to them giving them nice potential synergies with their $OSH acquisition earlier this year & with both $CANOQ & $OSH together, $CVS might be able to change the sentiment around their stock price as either one too small to change revenue picture alone

PittsburghTrader Posted - 8 months ago

$CANOQ if they really have to sell this thing by Nov 8, does give us a chance to speculate what likely to get for it? Some key holders have much higher avg cost & hard to let go of the potential $14 $CVS was contemplating last Oct But even a distressed sale, seems like could get 2-3x Revenue? Given $OSH went for 5x Revenue & $AMZN bought their acquisition at BOY for 4x Revenue

PittsburghTrader Posted - 8 months ago

$CANOQ agree with earlier comment that $CVS getting whacked for their PBM business loss in CA likely does make them more interested in doubling down on their $OSH bet & $CANOQ would provide nice synergy potential & help change their growth narrative